Why Ecological Forecasting Matters

Ecological forecasting is becoming a game-changer in environmental management and policy-making. As early as 2001, researchers like Clark et al. outlined the critical need for reliable predictions of the future—complete with uncertainty estimates—that empower us to anticipate and adapt to changes in our ecosystems. With the rise in published studies over the years, it’s clear the field has evolved tremendously and is now more vital than ever.

Introducing a Groundbreaking Special Collection

In a bid to spotlight both groundbreaking and previously published research, the Ecological Forecasting Initiative has unveiled a special collection entitled “Ecological Forecasting in the Earth System.” This initiative serves not only to highlight the latest innovations in ecological dynamics but also to foster inspiration and guidance across the broader scientific community.

The Cutting Edge of Research

This special collection assembles pioneering studies that explore, test, and refine forecasting models across various ecological systems and scales—from individual populations to global ecosystems. This breadth includes marine and terrestrial environments, with applications covering pressing topics such as biogeochemistry, water quality, biodiversity conservation, and climate solutions.

Breaking Down Barriers Between Disciplines

In a collaborative effort, this collection merges contributions from the American Geophysical Union (AGU) and the Ecological Society of America (ESA). By allowing submissions across different journals, the initiative shatters disciplinary silos, championing the interconnectedness of ecological forecasting.

Defining Ecological Forecasting

So, what exactly do we mean by ecological forecasting? These near-term predictions—spanning days to years—include uncertainty measures that can help manage the unpredictable nature of ecosystems. Evaluation methodologies, such as reforecast analyses, ensure that we hold ourselves to rigorous standards of accountability.

The Scope of Contributions Welcome

The initiative also welcomes research that may not directly describe forecasts but sheds light on methodologies that enhance forecasting accuracy. This includes innovative techniques like machine learning and interdisciplinary collaborations that elevate the practice of ecological forecasting.

A Timely Call for Action

As the world increasingly recognizes the importance of predictive science in making informed environmental decisions, this special issue aims to galvanize further research and collaborations. It is an essential stepping stone toward a future of effective environmental stewardship.

Submit Your Work!

This is a unique opportunity for researchers! To contribute, authors can submit their manuscripts to various journals under the AGU and ESA umbrella. Each submission can play a crucial role in advancing the field of ecological forecasting and, by extension, the future of our planet.