Finance

Could Ontario Be Headed for a ‘Modest’ Recession Thanks to U.S. Tariffs?

2025-04-30

Author: Sophie

Ontario Faces Economic Uncertainty Amid U.S. Tariffs

Brace yourself, Ontario! The province may be on the brink of a ‘modest’ recession due to new tariffs imposed by the United States, which are wreaking havoc on the economy and straining ties with Ontario's largest trading partner.

A striking new report from Ontario's financial accountability officer reveals that tariffs on steel, aluminum, and automobiles, unleashed by former U.S. President Donald Trump, are poised to slow the province's economic growth in 2025 and could even usher in a recession this very year!

The economic forecast looks dire for Ontario, with the report highlighting that 77% of the province’s goods exports and a staggering 60% of service exports are tied to the U.S. market.

Job Losses on the Horizon

The fallout from these tariffs could be catastrophic. According to the report, Ontario might lose approximately 68,100 jobs this year alone, with that number swelling to 119,200 next year if the tariffs continue unabated. This scenario could drive up the unemployment rate by 1.1 percentage points, putting immense strain on the manufacturing sector.

Government Response and Optimism