Science

The Moon Race: What Happens If China Lands First?

2025-09-09

Author: John Tan

The Great Lunar Showdown: USA vs. China

In an exciting new chapter of space exploration, both the United States and China have their eyes set on the moon, aiming to put astronauts there within the next few years. With NASA's administrators declaring a bold belief that America will win this cosmic race, the stakes have never been higher. But what if China emerges victorious?

NASA’s Ambitious Plans vs. China's Lunar Goals

NASA is gearing up for its Artemis 2 mission, which will send astronauts on a flyby around the moon early next year. Following that, NASA has its sights on the Artemis 3 mission, aiming for a crewed lunar landing in 2027. Meanwhile, China is rapidly advancing its lunar program, committing to a crewed landing before 2030 and recently announcing breakthroughs in critical hardware development, including the powerful Long March 10 rocket and the Lanyue lunar lander.

Are We Underestimating China's Moon Mission?

Despite America's ambitious timeline, experts at a recent Senate Commerce Committee hearing, ominously titled "There's a Bad Moon on the Rise," warned of the very real risk that the U.S. could fall behind China. Among these experts, former NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine emphasized that unless significant changes occur, the U.S. is unlikely to meet its timeline before China does.

The Consequences of a Chinese Lunar Victory

If China lands first, the implications for the United States could be far-reaching. Mike Gold, an authority on international space relations, voiced alarm over the potential fallout. He stated that a successful Chinese lunar landing could shift global attention towards Beijing, strengthening its political leverage in space exploration and national security, as well as enhancing trade relations.

Lunar Footprints and Economic Shifts

Gold pointed out that current diplomatic meetings between China, India, and Russia could intensify if China secures its position on the moon first, potentially realigning global economic dynamics in their favor. The reverberations of such an event could affect America's economy, tax revenue, innovation capabilities, and security interests.

The Race for Resources on the Moon