Buckle up, Thailand! Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra could be heading back to prison—a twist in the plot thickens with his involvement in the controversial "14th floor" hospital scandal. Legal experts predict that if his recent royal pardon request is flagged as fraudulent, he may face serious consequences.

On Tuesday, the highly anticipated ruling from the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Political Figures will determine the fate of Thaksin's six-month stay in a lavish hospital ward instead of a regular prison. Public outcry has been fierce, with many accusing him of faking or exaggerating health issues to dodge hard time after returning to Thailand on August 22, 2023.

After 15 years in self-imposed exile, Thaksin, 76, returned to Thailand following a royal clemency that reduced his original eight-year sentence for abuse of power and conflict of interest to just one year. But during his brief incarceration, he was swiftly transferred from a standard prison cell to the Police General Hospital, igniting skepticism over preferential treatment.

And now, with Thaksin's mysterious last-minute travel from Singapore to Dubai, doubts are swirling again. He insists he will return in time for the ruling, but this sudden detour has raised eyebrows among critics and political adversaries alike.

What Lies Ahead?

Legal scholar Jade Donavanik has laid out potential outcomes for this case. One possibility is that the court may conclude Thaksin's sentence has been fully served, effectively ending the matter. However, if they find that his sentence was not appropriately executed, things could take a dramatic turn.

"If the court determines Thaksin's pardon was based on false information, his eight-year sentence could be reinstated," warns Donavanik. Depending on the court's interpretation, Thaksin might be required to serve anywhere from a full year to a fraction of his sentence.

In a worst-case scenario, if Thaksin is ordered back to prison, it could spell trouble for those involved in facilitating his comfortable hospital stay—including doctors, nurses, and correctional officers. Their roles could lead to legal repercussions, with potential charges of misconduct and dereliction of duty looming overhead.

Political Fallout?

The ramifications of this ruling could ripple through the Pheu Thai Party, of which Thaksin is considered a guiding force. Should he find himself back behind bars due to alleged deception in obtaining royal pardon, the party's stability and public image could take a significant hit.

Political analyst Wanwichit Boonprong believes the odds are stacked against Thaksin escaping this ordeal unscathed, given the tangled web of discrepancies surrounding his case. "The central issue remains: will this sentence be enforced?" he questions.

The anticipation is palpable, as all eyes will be on the court's decision. If Thaksin chooses to appear on the verdict day, it could signify his acceptance of fate and an end to prolonged legal battles. Such a move might also rekindle support among his loyal followers.

As the clock ticks down to the court's decision, every development is crucial. Will Thailand’s former leader wind up behind bars once more? The nation awaits an answer.