Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is set to land in Istanbul this Thursday, ready to engage in direct discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin aimed at finding a resolution to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. However, many analysts believe it’s unlikely that Putin will attend, especially with U.S. President Donald Trump hinting at a potential appearance.

This summit offer comes on the heels of Putin's suggestion to revive peace negotiations, which had previously taken place in Turkey at the onset of the war before being halted in April 2022.

Trump, who has been vocal in trying to mediate between the two nations, expressed optimism on Monday about the prospective meeting in Istanbul, suggesting it could be transformed into a trilateral summit. "I was pondering the idea of flying over there. While I have a busy schedule, there’s a likelihood of it," Trump commented to reporters ahead of his own trip to the Middle East.

Despite the optimism, there’s been no confirmation from the Kremlin regarding Putin’s participation. Analysts widely agree that the Russian leader, who seldom makes spontaneous trips and has previously dismissed Zelensky as illegitimate, is unlikely to meet with him unless a peace deal is already firmly established. With Russia maintaining a hardline stance, the chance of an agreement being finalized by Thursday seems minuscule.

What’s at Stake in This Diplomatic Dance?

Ukrainian parliament’s foreign affairs committee chair, Oleksandr Merezhko, noted that while Zelensky will definitely be present in Istanbul, the chance of paranoid Putin accepting the invitation is low. "Putin doesn’t want to appear weak in the eyes of the media," he explained, painting a vivid picture of young and determined Zelensky facing off against the aging dictator.

Both leaders are perceived to be maneuvering to leverage U.S. President Trump’s peace efforts, each hoping to deflect blame onto the other if talks fail. Political analysts like Balasz Jarabik emphasize that this is all about who can make the other blink, underscoring the conflict’s information warfare aspect.

The Pressure is On: Sanctions and Ceasefire Talks

Currently, the Trump administration aims to secure an immediate ceasefire, but the Kremlin insists it will only agree if Ukraine halts its military mobilization and Western support ceases. European nations, including Germany and France, have given Russia until Monday to agree to a ceasefire or face additional sanctions—a threat that may not significantly faze the Kremlin, which has dealt with sanctions for years.

Recent military engagements suggest that Putin isn't likely to grant a quick ceasefire, particularly since his forces continue to make gradual gains along the extensive front lines.

Putin has proposed that any talks take place with lower-ranking officials and reference 2022 negotiations, wherein Russia demanded constitutional changes in Ukraine, among other terms. These included making Russian an official language and prohibiting Ukraine from joining NATO.

Question of Trust: Will Talks Lead to Peace?

This context adds a layer of complexity, especially given that Putin faces potential arrest warrants from the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes in Ukraine. Despite this, travel to Turkey might feel safer for him due to Turkey not being an ICC member state.

Critics, like pro-Putin member Sergey Mironov, have dismissed Zelensky's outreach as mere theatrics, intended to divert attention from Russia's genuine peace negotiations.

Many experts, such as former Canadian ambassador Andrew Robinson, share a skeptical view: even if Putin were to make an unexpected appearance in Istanbul, the prospects for reaching a lasting peace agreement or even a ceasefire seem bleak.

"Putin cannot be trusted at all, and Zelensky knows this. I don’t expect a serious outcome," Robinson concluded.