Overview

Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) has captivated investors with a series of remarkable earnings reports, but as the technology giant gears up to release its fiscal third-quarter results on November 20, it’s essential for shareholders to manage their expectations carefully.

Analyst Insights

Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore emphasizes a cautious outlook, stating the immediate upside may be limited. While not pessimistic on Nvidia’s prospects, he highlights the current supply constraints that could influence upcoming performance. “We are back to fully supply constrained on new products, which could limit upside on current quarter and outlook,” Moore explained. He pointed out that both the Blackwell and H200 products are experiencing significant supply limitations.

Revenue Projections

In the previous earnings call, Nvidia projected revenues in the range of 'several billion' from the Blackwell product line for the upcoming January quarter. Moore has raised this estimated figure to between $5 to $6 billion, which exceeds the implied number provided earlier but slightly falls short of previous expectations. He also noted a modest uptick in demand for the Hopper GPUs, with the H100 showing weaker interest compared to the more robust reception for the H200.

Future Expectations

Moore anticipates that Nvidia will continue to outperform previous guidance—having exceeded its projections by around $2 billion in past quarters. Although the consensus for January has already settled at approximately $36.5 billion, he predicts that while the guidance may rise, supply constraints will inevitably cap any significant growth.

Transitional Quarter

Despite these challenges, Moore views the current quarter as transitional rather than a major catalyst for the stock's price movement. He remains optimistic about the longer-term trajectory, particularly with expectations for the Blackwell cycle to provide substantial upside in the second half of the fiscal year. Consequently, he has revised his growth forecasts upward: for FY26, he now projects $176.78 billion in revenue with a non-GAAP gross margin of 73.8% and earnings per share (EPS) of $4.03—up from previous estimates.

Price Target Upgrade

In conjunction with his analysis, Moore upgraded Nvidia’s price target from $150 to $160, indicating a potential 10% appreciation in the stock over the next several months. Overall, Nvidia enjoys a Strong Buy consensus rating from 37 analysts, with only three recommending to hold the stock, further demonstrating widespread confidence in its future prospects.

Analyst Consensus

The average price target set by analysts is $157.27, reflecting an estimated 8% increase over current trading prices within the next year. With nearly unanimous support from Wall Street—41 analysts reviewed the stock, with only three suggesting a hold—it’s clear that Nvidia is generally viewed as a strong investment, despite the hurdles it faces in the supply chain landscape.

Conclusion

As excitement brews around Nvidia's upcoming earnings report, all eyes will be on how the company navigates these supply challenges and what that means for its growth trajectory moving forward. Stay tuned for potentially groundbreaking insights from this major player in the tech industry!