As the 2024-25 NHL season enters its final stretch, the Montreal Canadiens find themselves surprisingly in contention for playoff hockey that once seemed like a distant dream.

The turning point for the Canadiens came with the acquisition of talented defenceman Alexandre Carrier and the emergence of Patrik Laine as a powerplay specialist. But perhaps the most critical addition has been rookie Lane Hutson, who has injected energy and skill into the lineup. Nick Suzuki is also shining, playing the best hockey of his career, which has further bolstered the team's performance.

A pivotal win sealed their fate against the Ottawa Senators, where they emerged victorious with a 6-3 scoreline, catapulting them into the final Wild Card position in the Eastern Conference.

Current Playoff Odds

However, the Canadiens’ hold on that desired playoff spot is precarious. Close rivals like the New York Rangers are just one point behind, while the New York Islanders, Detroit Red Wings, and Columbus Blue Jackets trail by three points.

What lends hope to the Canadiens is that teams like the Rangers, Blue Jackets, and Red Wings have played more games, leading to a more favorable outlook for Montreal. Meanwhile, the Islanders have matched the number of games played (67), allowing the Habs to maintain a slight edge in their playoff pursuit.

Different analytics sources provide varying estimates for Montreal's playoff odds. Money Puck offers a 31 percent chance, while Hockey Reference is more optimistic, assigning a 49.5 percent probability. For this analysis, we refer to Mike Kelly’s estimate from Sportlogic, which places the Canadiens' chances at approximately 43 percent. While these odds might not seem overwhelmingly positive, comparisons with their competitors improve the outlook significantly.

Evaluating the Strength of Schedule

As the season draws to a close, teams need to be aware of their remaining schedules — a decisive factor for playoff qualifications. Ottawa, for instance, benefits from having the easiest strength of schedule in the league, boasting postseason odds above 90 percent thanks to their advantageous matchup scenarios.

In contrast, here’s how the Canadiens and their pursuers vary in arm wrestling their remaining contests: 1. **Detroit Red Wings**: 1st most difficult schedule 2. **New York Islanders**: 4th most difficult schedule 3. **Columbus Blue Jackets**: 9th most difficult schedule 4. **New York Rangers**: 12th most difficult schedule 5. **Montreal Canadiens**: 19th overall, leaning toward the easier side

With the Canadiens ranked 19th in strength of schedule (SOS) out of the 32 teams, they possess an advantage when compared to their rivals. While making the playoffs is a challenging road, their mid-tier SOS reflects a favorable pathway ahead.

Scouting the Remaining Contestants

Out of the 15 games left on their schedule, seven of them are against teams currently holding playoff positions: the Colorado Avalanche, Carolina Hurricanes (twice), Florida Panthers (twice), Ottawa Senators, and Toronto Maple Leafs. The remaining matches pit them against teams that are currently on the outside looking in, including the New York Islanders, St. Louis Blues, Philadelphia Flyers (twice), Boston Bruins, Nashville Predators, Detroit Red Wings, and Chicago Blackhawks.

How the Canadiens perform in their matches against the Hurricanes and Panthers will be critical. Fortunately for Montreal, they have shown resilience against former champions like the Hurricanes, recently achieving a 3-1 victory in a previous encounter. This momentum could be pivotal as they attempt to secure a playoff berth.

Key matchups loom ahead, particularly against the Islanders later this week, a team still vying for a postseason spot and a necessary hurdle for the Canadiens in their quest to solidify their position.

Final Thoughts from the Canadiens’ Leadership

While Montreal’s current odds sit comfortably in the 45 percent range, their playoff aspiration is not just a remote possibility, but a testament to how the team has developed through adversity. General Manager Kent Hughes’ strategy of retaining key players rather than trading them for limited future picks has proven wise. This keeps team morale high and reinforces a positive setup for development.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT: Canadiens Embrace Trade Deadline Decisions and Aim High

Playing high-stakes games towards the end of the season fosters experience and builds a winning mentality—fundamental aspects that every rebuilding team aims to establish. Fans should stay tuned, as the coming weeks promise to be electrifying and full of potential surprises!