Nation

Liberals Surge Ahead of Conservatives in Groundbreaking Poll: What This Means for Canada

2025-03-17

Author: Olivia

With an election call imminent, the political landscape in Canada is shifting dramatically. According to a recent exclusive National Post-Leger poll, support for the Liberal Party has surged, putting them ahead of the Conservatives by a narrow margin of three points. The poll reveals that 42 percent of Canadians plan to vote for Mark Carney's Liberals, compared to 39 percent for Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives.

This resurgence is a remarkable reversal for the Liberals, who have faced declining support over the past year. They were previously projected to suffer a major defeat if elections were held, with many analysts suggesting a potential supermajority for the Conservatives. However, the dynamics changed following Justin Trudeau's resignation in January and Carney's ascent as party leader. This shift coincided with a rise in national patriotism amid perceived threats from U.S. President Donald Trump, fueling a newfound momentum for the Liberals.

Andrew Enns, executive vice-president of Leger’s central Canada operations, described this turnaround as "the cherry on the sundae that was started back in mid-January," emphasizing the extraordinary nature of the comeback.

While the New Democratic Party (NDP) struggles in third place with a mere 9 percent support, the Bloc Québécois is holding steady at 5 percent. Enns noted the historically low figures for the NDP, indicating a shift of progressive voters back towards the Liberals, which could create a potent electoral force.

Interestingly, a substantial 28 percent of respondents said they do not know enough about Carney to form an opinion, pointing to a possible vulnerability in his campaign as well as an opportunity. Poilievre, meanwhile, faces a net unfavorability rating: 49 percent of Canadians view him unfavorably against 39 percent who see him positively.

When it comes to leadership issues, Carney is viewed as best equipped to handle key challenges facing the nation. Roughly 45 percent of respondents believe that he is the best choice to bolster Canada's economy, while 42 percent see him as the better candidate to manage dealings with Trump. Yet, there are mixed feelings regarding Carney’s ability to make life more affordable, where he slightly trails Poilievre.

Regionally, the Liberals' support is strongest in Atlantic Canada, where 51 percent favor Carney's party. In Quebec, the Liberals have made significant inroads, garnering 40 percent of support, while Conservatives lag behind at 23 percent. This sharp ascent in Quebec is a notable development, especially considering the historical dominance of the Bloc in the region.

Despite challenges in the Prairie provinces, where Conservative support remains robust at 52 percent in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, the Liberals are holding their ground elsewhere, particularly in British Columbia, where they enjoy a nine-point lead over the Conservatives.

Demographically, the Conservatives still maintain a slight lead among men, whereas women are leaning more towards the Liberals. However, the most surprising shift comes from younger voters: a previous trend showing strong support for the Conservatives among Canadians aged 18 to 34 has now equalized, with both parties now attracting 38 percent support from this demographic.

In light of this evolving situation, the political momentum seems to be favoring the Liberals, and as the election date approaches, both parties will likely intensify their campaigns to capture voter attention. This turn of events garners interest from political analysts and the public alike, leaving many eager to see how these dynamics will unfold in the coming days.

The poll results were gathered from an online survey involving 1,568 respondents and have been adjusted for factors such as age, gender, and regional demographics, providing a reliable snapshot of the current political climate in Canada.