As the Americans prepare for a critical decision that could shape the future of their nation, Canadians find themselves closely watching the ramifications of this fierce political battle. With the stakes higher than ever, the divide between Vice-President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump illustrates the sharply contrasting visions for America’s path forward.

Canada cannot ignore the implications of this election, with over 77% of Canadian exports heading south of the border and trade constituting a staggering 60% of Canada's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The next president will also oversee the pivotal review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico agreement in 2026, which is critical for bilateral trade relations.

Harris has publicly criticized the trilateral agreement, arguing it fails to adequately protect American jobs and the environment, while maintaining firm support for President Joe Biden's "Buy American" procurement rules. In contrast, Trump champions a bold agenda replete with a proposed 10% tariff on imports, which could create further tension in the trading relationship, especially if he returns to office.

The 2024 election season has already proven to be tumultuous, with Biden’s recent withdrawal from the race amidst a disastrous debate paving the way for Harris to become the Democratic nominee just months before Election Day. Trump's campaign has not been without drama, including two assassination attempts, creating a fervor among his supporters that is palpable.

As Americans head to the polls, there are key factors to watch that will undoubtedly reverberate across the Canadian border.

1. Electoral Votes: The Battle for Pennsylvania

The race to secure 270 electoral votes is pivotal, making Pennsylvania’s 19 votes crucial for either candidate. Both campaigns have their eyes set on this battleground state, which could determine the broader outcome of the election.

2. Midwestern Alliances

With Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin showcasing similar voter demographics, how these states swing could set the tone for the entire election. A large percentage of Canadian exports flow to Michigan, making its outcomes particularly significant for Canadian economic interests.

3. Diverse Battleground States

Beyond the Midwest, states like Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada are also critical indicators of national sentiment. Each of these states carries unique demographics that could sway the results in favor of either party.

4. The Down-Ballot Impact

Voters in key Senate and House races will have a tremendous influence on the balance of power in Congress, which directly affects the incoming president's ability to govern. 34 Senate seats are up for grabs, with key races like Jon Tester vs. Tim Sheehy in Montana and Ted Cruz vs. Colin Allred in Texas drawing national attention.

5. Potential for Chaos and Misinformation

Anxiety looms over the election's aftermath, particularly regarding Trump's recent claims undermining the election's integrity. The specter of misinformation, notably from foreign actors like the alleged Russian influence targeting the elections in Georgia and Pennsylvania, raises fears of division and unrest echoing the January 6 Capitol riots.

As this election unfolds, Canadians are urged to remain vigilant, as the ramifications extend beyond American borders, fundamentally impacting Canada’s economy and political landscape. The results could reshape the path toward collaboration or conflict between these two nations that have shared interests and values for generations.