Key Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades: Where to Invest for Stability in 2024
2024-12-20
Author: Michael
In the fast-paced world of investing, staying updated on analyst ratings can significantly impact your portfolio strategy. Recently, National Bank Financial analyst Giuliano Thornhill made waves by emphasizing the stability of retailer-owned triple-net-lease (NNN) real estate investment trusts (REITs). He views these as "low-risk investments," particularly advantageous for those looking to hedge against broader systemic risks.
Thornhill outlined three REITs that stood out: Automotive Properties REIT (APR.UN), Canadian Tire REIT (CRT.UN), and Choice Properties REIT (CHP.UN). Each has distinct end markets, including dealerships, discretionary auto repair, and grocery retail, which leads to varying risk profiles.
1. Automotive Properties REIT (APR.UN)
- **Rating:** Outperform - **Target Price:** $13 Thornhill considers this REIT “the most bond-like” among the trio, indicating it stands to benefit significantly from lower interest rates, alongside an active M&A strategy among auto dealers. The average target on the Street hovers around $13.17, showcasing a strong consensus on its potential.
2. Canadian Tire REIT (CRT.UN)
- **Rating:** Sector Perform - **Target Price:** $16.25 Although this REIT has shown consistent growth post-IPO, Thornhill suggests waiting for a more opportune entry point due to softening consumer spending. The current average target is $16, reflecting cautious optimism among investors.
3. Choice Properties REIT (CHP.UN)
- **Rating:** Sector Perform - **Target Price:** $15.50 Thornhill recognizes this REIT as a high-quality option with resilient grocery-anchored retail assets, an attractive valuation based on cash flow, and a declining leverage profile. The market average target stands at $15.75.
Meanwhile, RBC Dominion Securities analysts Pammi Bir and Jimmy Shan shared their thoughts on the broader Canadian REIT market. They observed that external macroeconomic narratives will continue influencing investor sentiment into 2024, specifically noting a year-to-date total return of just 1% for the TSX REIT index, compared to a 25% rise in the TSX Composite.
They hinted that a more favorable environment could arise in 2025, supported by anticipated Bank of Canada policy easing and strong fundamentals across property types. Their recommendations prioritize segments like seniors housing, industrial, multi-family, retail, self-storage, and office spaces, identifying opportunities for growth amidst the current volatility.
In tech, following a resilient quarterly earnings report, TD Cowen analyst Daniel Chan upgraded BlackBerry Ltd. from “hold” to “buy,” increasing his price target significantly to $4. He identified improved cash flow possibilities and undervalued segments as key drivers for this shift.
On the lumber front, RBC's Matthew McKellar foresees stronger lumber prices in 2025 despite ongoing challenges in housing affordability. He highlighted Interfor Corp. and Canfor Corp. as companies poised to benefit from the anticipated tighter market.
Citi analyst Alexander Hacking took a cautious stance on Barrick Gold Corp., marking a reduced earnings forecast but acknowledged the potential for gold prices to soar in response to various influencing factors.
Lastly, for investors eyeing convenience store giants, Scotia Capital's John Zamparo expressed optimism for Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc., noting it could see significant EPS growth through strategic deals, including a potential acquisition of Seven & i Holdings.
These analyst updates emphasize the delicate balance between risk and opportunity, urging investors to carefully navigate the current market landscape for the best strategies into 2024.