Asteroid 2024 YR4: A Growing Threat

Asteroid 2024 YR4 has been the talk of the cosmos since its discovery, initially raising alarms with a 3% chance of colliding with Earth. As scientists refined their models, the risk to our planet evaporated, but a new concern arose: a 4% chance of it striking the moon in December 2032.

Why Should We Care?

While a lunar impact might seem distant—especially since there are no concrete plans for human habitation on the moon by then—the consequences of such a collision could be dramatic. An asteroid of this size could unleash a debris storm that bombards Earth with micrometeoroids, potentially increasing their typical levels by up to a thousand times for several days.

Such a meteor shower could dazzle the night sky, but it also poses peril to satellites and astronauts aboard the International Space Station, putting lives and technology at risk.

The Dilemma: Deflect or Destroy?

If asteroid 2024 YR4 is indeed on a collision course with the moon, we have two paths forward: deflection or destruction.

Deflection is the more elegant solution, allowing us to slightly adjust its trajectory to ensure it veers away from both the Earth and the moon. However, for this to work effectively, we need precise knowledge of the asteroid's mass. With estimates suggesting a diameter of roughly 60 meters but weight ranging from 51 million to over 711 million kilograms, even a small miscalculation could worsen the crisis by inadvertently redirecting it toward Earth.

Time is Ticking

To get a clearer idea of 2024 YR4's mass, scientists could launch a reconnaissance mission by 2028. This is a tight timeframe, and design and launch within these constraints has never been accomplished before. However, existing missions like OSIRIS-APEX or Psyche might be reconfigured to tackle this problem, though doing so would mean sacrificing their original objectives.

The Alternative: Nuclear Disruption

If deflection proves too uncertain, destruction options are on the table. The kinetic approach involves striking the asteroid with significant force to shatter it into smaller fragments. Recent missions like DART showcased similar techniques for redirecting asteroids, but targeting 2024 YR4 for destruction introduces new challenges.

The less conventional method? Using a nuclear device. By detonating a nuclear bomb at a calculated height above the asteroid, we could disrupt its structure without necessarily obliterating it completely. A 1-megaton nuke could be sufficient for this, and while we've never tested a nuclear explosion in space for asteroid defense, past experiments, like the Starfish Prime test in the 1960s, indicate it's a feasible option.

Looking Ahead

As the clock ticks down to December 2032, scientists and engineers will need to choose their strategy wisely. Whether by deflecting or destroying 2024 YR4, the stakes couldn't be higher—not just for the moon, but for our planet as well.