As the United States prepared for its pivotal election, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been briefed multiple times on the daunting prospect of unrest and potential violence that could erupt afterwards. This "third scenario" has become a focal point of discussion among senior Canadian officials, cabinet members, and Trudeau himself, particularly in a tight race where neither Donald Trump nor Kamala Harris might secure a clear victory.

Eight years ago, it would have been surprising for the Canadian government to contemplate the implications of U.S. electoral chaos. However, the seismic shift that occurred with Trump's ascension in 2016, and the tumult it unleashed—including the notorious Capitol insurrection on January 6, 2021—has altered the stakes for Canada's diplomatic calculus.

Sources within the government, who wish to remain unnamed, indicated that opinions vary on the likelihood of upheaval post-election. However, there is a notable confidence that, regardless of the election's outcome, American institutions are robust enough to handle the fallout. That said, rising tensions and a troubling surge in election denialism have been noted in the lead-up to the vote.

The Global Project Against Hate and Extremism recently reported a spike in violent rhetoric tied to claims of election fraud, raising alarms among observers. In October alone, alarming parallels were drawn between today's political climate and the fraught atmosphere preceding the 2020 election, where violent language proliferated on fringe online platforms. Notorious far-right groups, like the Proud Boys, have reportedly incited followers with calls to arms, suggesting an inevitable clash fueled by unfounded claims of electoral theft.

When asked about these concerns, Trudeau's office declined to comment in detail but reiterated the Prime Minister's commitment to support Canada's interests, irrespective of who is elected. In a podcast last month, Trudeau stated, "My job as a Canadian prime minister is to stand up for Canada whoever they elect," reaffirming the government’s past experiences in navigating the complexities of U.S.-Canada relations during Trump’s presidency—including contentious trade negotiations and retaliatory measures in response to tariffs on Canadian products.

Amidst the uncertainty, Trudeau expressed that both candidates, Trump and Harris, display tendencies that could lead to challenges for Canada, particularly regarding trade policies. With tensions at an all-time high, he reflected on how tight election results could exacerbate the situation. "It’s possible that we'll face the same struggles no matter who ends up in office," he noted.

Even a clear victory for either candidate does not guarantee peace in a nation characterized by deep polarization. Donald Trump's history of questioning electoral integrity looms large—he has already suggested an election theft scheme by Democrats, echoing his baseless claims about the 2020 race. Experts worry that, if he loses, his refusal to concede could trigger widespread unrest, echoing demonstrations seen after his 2016 victory.

David MacNaughton, Canada's former ambassador to the U.S., expressed concerns over potential chaos, remarking, "If the results are as close as they were in 2000, we might face significant turmoil." He advocated for clarity in the election results, stressing that neither country would benefit from further disorder.

In a world increasingly affected by political instability and social divisions, the stakes are undeniably high—not just for the United States, but for its neighbors like Canada, who remain watchful and prepared for any fallout. As the countdown to the election continues, one thing is clear: the implications of this vote extend far beyond American borders.