In a startling revelation, a recent report by Swiss Re Institute suggests that insurance companies in the UK and US may need to dramatically rethink their strategies due to persistently rising mortality rates linked to the fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic.

According to the report titled "The Future of Excess Mortality After Covid-19," if the impacts of the pandemic are not effectively managed, mortality rates in the general population could remain elevated—up to 3% higher in the US and 2.5% higher in the UK—by 2033.

Excess mortality, which refers to the number of deaths exceeding expected levels in a given population, has been a key measure in assessing the long-term repercussions of health crises.

Historically, these levels tend to hover around zero, but the pandemic has shattered this norm. The report highlights that while fluctuations are usually temporary, caused by events like significant medical breakthroughs or epidemics, the aftershocks of COVID-19 have sustained a higher mortality rate, defying previous trends.

Shockingly, the report notes that in 2021 alone, excess mortality reached 23% above the 2019 baseline in the United States and 11% in the UK.

As of 2023, estimates indicate that these figures could still be around 3-7% for the US, and 5-8% for the UK, reflecting the ongoing challenges posed by respiratory diseases, including COVID-19 and influenza, as well as chronic conditions such as cardiovascular disease, cancer, and metabolic disorders.

But there is a glimmer of hope: the report outlines a scenario where excess mortality could normalize by 2028, pending accelerated medical advancements—including innovative treatments and a shift to healthier lifestyles.

This optimistic view largely hinges on advancements in healthcare, particularly in addressing the impacts of COVID-19 and undoing the backlog of medical services that have plagued healthcare systems since the onset of the pandemic.

Crucially, the report delves into how cardiovascular diseases (CVD), exacerbated by the pandemic, are significantly contributing to excess mortality.

COVID-19 is not only a direct cause but has also contributed to an indirect surge in CVD deaths through disruptions in regular healthcare services, leading to a neglect of essential cardiac tests and treatments.

For insurers, the implications are dire. They are urged to adapt their underwriting philosophies, reassess risk appetites, and modify mortality assumptions used in pricing and reserving.

Additionally, proactive engagement in preventative programs could assist policyholders in leading healthier lives and potentially lower mortality rates.

Paul Murray, CEO of life and health reinsurance at Swiss Re, emphasizes the urgency of controlling COVID-19: "With the US averaging 1,500 COVID-19 deaths a week in 2023—comparable to deaths from fentanyl or firearms—our analysis warns of a prolonged period of elevated excess mortality unless decisive action is taken."

The path to recovery and a return to pre-pandemic mortality levels is firmly within reach, but it requires a concerted effort towards public health, vaccination for vulnerable populations, and the reinvigoration of healthcare systems.

Without prompts for improvement, the future of mortality rates remains uncertain, making it imperative for insurers to take proactive steps now.

As the world grapples with the ongoing effects of COVID-19, the question remains: will healthcare systems and insurers rise to the challenge, or will we see the specter of excess mortality loom for years to come?