WASHINGTON:

As the clock ticks down to his tariff announcement, US President Donald Trump claims he will take a “kind” approach to trade penalties. This declaration, made on March 31, raises eyebrows as he prepares to unveil measures aimed at what he describes as unfair trade practices that have left the United States at a disadvantage.

In an unprecedented use of presidential authority since his inauguration, Trump indicated that he could reveal specific “reciprocal tariffs” as soon as Tuesday night or Wednesday. His strategy comes on the heels of escalating tensions with major trading partners, including China, Canada, and the European Union.

“I’m going to be very nice—relatively speaking,” Trump stated, hinting that his tariffs would present a more generous alternative compared to previously enacted fees. Amid fears of a potential global trade war, critics are expressing concerns that his plan could provoke retaliation from countries that may form coalitions against US economic interests.

In fact, over the weekend, leaders from China, South Korea, and Japan announced efforts to strengthen their trade relations in anticipation of Trump's impending tariff roll-out. However, Trump remains unfazed by the prospect of losing allies, even suggesting that negotiations surrounding the popular app TikTok could be linked to tariffs imposed on China.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed that the administration's goal is to implement “country-based tariffs,” alongside additional industry-specific duties likely targeting sectors such as pharmaceuticals and technology.

Market responses have been mixed, with European and Asian markets experiencing downturns, while the Dow and S&P 500 managed slight gains. The uncertainty surrounding these tariffs has fueled volatility, with the Wall Street Journal reporting that advisers are contemplating global tariffs up to 20% across nearly all US trading partners.

In an alarming sign for the US economy, Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for recession probability from 20% to 35%, attributing the increase to lower growth expectations and decreased consumer confidence. They caution that Trump's tariff strategy could exacerbate economic pain for American consumers.

As countries like Canada and the European Union prepare countermeasures ahead of Wednesday’s announcement, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva acknowledged that while Trump's tariffs are sparking anxiety, their global impact may not be as severe as feared.

Economists predict that Trump's next wave of tariffs may focus on what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent labels the “Dirty 15”—countries with persistent trade imbalances with the US. These include major players like China, the EU, Mexico, and India.

In a proactive response, international partners are scrambling to mitigate potential damage. India is reportedly weighing reductions in certain tariffs, while European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde stressed the need for Europe to bolster its economic independence, referring to the current situation as an “existential moment.”

Furthermore, conversations continue regarding a trade deal between the UK and the US, with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer claiming negotiations have been productive. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz cautions that although Europe will respond firmly to Trump’s measures, it remains open to compromise.

As the countdown to the announcement continues, the global economy watches closely. Will Trump’s “kind” tariffs help or hurt the US in the long run? Only time will tell! Stay tuned for updates as this story unfolds!