In a bold statement on social media, President Donald Trump hailed a "total reset" in US-China trade relations as talks intensified over the weekend. The discussions, involving top officials from both nations, aim to ease the trade tensions that have escalated due to Trump's aggressive imposition of tariffs.

In his early Sunday post on Truth Social, Trump described the negotiations as "very good," highlighting a crucial desire for increased access for American businesses in China. "GREAT PROGRESS MADE!!!" he declared, though he left out specifics on what that progress entails.

The closed-door meetings, taking place between US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, are a significant moment, marking the first in-person discussions since the escalation of tariffs.

Realities of Trade Relations

Experts warn, however, that expectations should be tempered. Nathan Sheets, Citigroup’s global chief economist, indicated that the current high tariffs do not benefit either country. As the talks unfolded in a discreet residential villa in Geneva, both sides managed expectations, with Bessent clarifying they were not seeking a "big trade deal" while China urged the US to lift tariffs first.

Chinese state media characterized the meetings as a crucial step toward resolving ongoing trade issues, bringing hope to businesses and markets alike. Yet, analysts like Gary Hufbauer from the Peterson Institute for International Economics express skepticism about returning to normal trade relations, warning that even reduced tariffs could still significantly impact bilateral trade.

China's Resilience in the Trade War

Adding to the backdrop, China’s Vice Premier arrived buoyed by reports of rising exports despite the ongoing trade war, attributed to rerouting trade to Southeast Asia to bypass US tariffs. Some officials within Trump's administration are beginning to recognize that China may be better positioned to navigate these trade challenges.

The Geneva discussions follow Trump's recent unveiling of a trade agreement with Britain—the first post-tariff deal. However, analysts remain cautious about the potential for significant shifts in the US-China trade landscape, predicting that both sides might emerge from the talks praising the constructive nature of discussions without making substantial reductions in tariffs.

As the talks continue, all eyes will be on how the economic giants can navigate these complex negotiations, with the future of international trade hanging in the balance.