On January 19, 2025, the once-unshakeable belief that a university degree guarantees a prosperous future in Hong Kong has been irreparably damaged. A striking new study from the New Youth Forum reveals that the median monthly income for university graduates plummeted from HK$36,418 in 2003 to HK$35,071 in 2023—a worrying decline of 3.7%. This statistic does more than depict a fiscal downturn; it highlights an alarming rupture in what was once considered the social contract between the city and its young people.

The disillusionment faced by today's graduates starkly contrasts with the expectations of their parents' generation, who believed in education as the great equalizer. Now, young professionals grapple with a “perfect storm” of falling salaries, skyrocketing housing prices, and an intensely competitive job market that seems to favor the privileged few.

To add further insult, individuals with only a high school diploma have witnessed their median income rise by an impressive 24.9% in the same timeframe. This signifies not just stagnation but rather an unprecedented devaluation of higher education, as more graduates see their degrees becoming lesser assets in an unforgiving labor market.

The ramifications of this economic reality extend beyond income and employment. A recent mental health survey conducted by Baptist Oi Kwan Social Service finds that a staggering 25.5% of secondary school students exhibit moderate to severe symptoms of depression. This troubling statistic lays bare the psychological toll wrought by the growing realization that academic success may not translate into financial stability.

Though graduates from prestigious institutions, such as The University of Hong Kong (HKU), continue to snag the highest starting salaries at an average of HK$385,000 annually, this success creates an environment fraught with immense pressure, urging students to chase admission into elite universities as the sole pathway to financial security. This "winner-takes-all" mentality further alienates students from other institutions, exacerbating social divides.

The daunting housing situation in the city compounds these stressors, with residential property prices remaining among the highest globally despite minor declines. For a typical graduate earning that HK$35,071 median salary, home ownership morphs into a distant fantasy, impossible without years of relentless saving. Basic calculations reveal that to afford a modest 400-square-foot flat priced at approximately HK$6 million, a graduate would need to save their entire income for nearly 14 years—if they can manage to set aside enough for a down payment of HK$1.2 million.

Compounding these challenges is an alarming trend of "employment downgrade." The number of university graduates trapped in low-skill, low-paying jobs has nearly tripled since 2003, climbing from 66,000 to 194,000. This disturbing shift indicates a troubling mismatch between educational attainment and job opportunities.

The disparities in graduate earnings also present a worrisome scenario. While HKU alums enjoy an average salary of HK$385,000, peers from institutions like Lingnan University earn a scant HK$238,000. This gap transforms university selection into an existential gamble, crippling students with the burden of making life-altering decisions at an age when they should still be exploring their interests and passions.

The mental health crisis faced by students is underscored by statistics revealing that fewer than 26.3% of students feel they achieve a satisfactory level of well-being. This isn't merely academic anxiety; it reflects a broader despair fueled by the knowledge that even top grades may not secure a bright future.

Despite a recent year-on-year decline of 13.02% in housing prices, the prospect of affordable living remains bleak. Basic calculations reveal that for the typical young professional, home ownership is increasingly out of reach, sowing deeper seeds of frustration and hopelessness.

Furthermore, Hong Kong's historically narrow economic base, heavily reliant on financial services and real estate, pools graduates into a limited selection of roles, forcing them into steep competition. This demand for degrees has led to qualification inflation, with jobs that once required secondary education now mandating higher learning credentials—without commensurate salary increases.

There is potential for change, however, with calls for a reevaluation of both the economic landscape and educational frameworks in Hong Kong. Government initiatives aimed at establishing innovation hubs and the Northern Metropolis must evolve from mere talk into tangible action, fostering diverse opportunities for upcoming graduates. Educational institutions must broaden their focus from rote academic achievement to include skills relevant to today’s industries, echoing the success of organizations like HKBU, where graduates enjoyed a notable salary spike of 9.3% in 2023.

With a staggering 6.6% of recent graduates either emigrating or returning to their countries, the region faces its highest exodus since records began in 2003. This brain drain could spell disaster for Hong Kong's future economic stability and its reputation as a viable destination for talent.

Ultimately, the sad decline in the value of university degrees signifies more than an academic disappointment; it represents a fundamental erosion of the societal pact that promises youth a path to prosperity. For Hong Kong to reclaim its identity as a land of opportunity, it must urgently rethink both its economic and educational strategies. Without substantive transformations, the city risks deteriorating not just its economic prospects but also the very future of its youth.