The Paradox of Thai Politics

Thailand’s political landscape is riddled with contradictions. On the surface, the country boasts a constitutional monarchy, regular elections, and a politically active youth. Yet, analysts argue that the true power lies with an unelected elite comprising the military, judiciary, and royal family.

A History of Coups and Instability

Since transitioning from absolute monarchy in 1932, Thailand has witnessed over a dozen coups, creating a relentless cycle of conflict between reformist movements and entrenched powers. Few families understand this better than the Shinawatras, whose political saga has dominated the last two decades. Now, Paetongtarn Shinawatra's fate hangs in the balance as the Constitutional Court prepares to make a significant ruling.

The Controversial Constitutional Court

The Constitutional Court has a reputation for aligning its decisions with the establishment's interests. Napon Jatusripitak, a fellow at Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, notes that the court is often viewed by conservatives as a 'moral guardian' against perceived democratic overreach. This identity, rather than a commitment to the rule of law, underpins its legitimacy and interventions in political matters.

Most judges serving today were appointed by conservative, military-led administrations, resulting in a built-in bias favoring establishment interests.

A Pattern of Ouster

Since 2008, all prime ministers brought before the court, with one exception, have been ousted. Four leaders linked to the Shinawatra legacy have faced removal due to court rulings. Notably, Samak Sundaravej was ousted for hosting a cooking show while in office, while his successor, Somchai Wongsawat, was removed for electoral fraud.

Yingluck Shinawatra, Thaksin Shinawatra’s sister, was charged with abuse of power just before her government was overthrown by a military coup. Last year, Srettha Thavisin was ousted for appointing a convicted minister to his cabinet.

Dissolving Political Parties