In a startling update from health officials, there's a glimmer of hope regarding the mpox outbreak in Congo, with reports suggesting that cases may be stabilizing. This development comes in the wake of the World Health Organization’s (WHO) emergency declaration in August, which underscored the urgent need to combat this viral threat.

Currently, Congo has been reporting approximately 200 to 300 lab-confirmed mpox cases each week—a notable decrease from nearly 400 cases in July. Particularly, the mining city of Kamituga, the outbreak's epicenter, has shown a positive trend in reported cases.

However, it’s crucial to note that the WHO has stated only 40% to 50% of suspected cases in Kong are getting tested. Alarmingly, the virus continues to spread, with nearby Uganda also reporting new infections.

While experts express relief at the decline in some areas, they remain perplexed about the underlying transmission dynamics. The pressing issue of inadequate vaccine supply looms large, with Congo reportedly receiving only 265,000 doses. This is an insufficient number for a country with a population of 110 million, as estimates show only around 50,000 individuals have been vaccinated so far.

“The urgent need for a broader vaccination campaign across the continent cannot be overstated if we are to halt the virus’s spread and prevent further mutations,” emphasizes Dr. Zakary Rhissa, head of operations for Alima in Congo. He warns that failing to act now could lead to another major outbreak, reminiscent of past incidents that have impacted global health, such as the 2017 Nigerian epidemic linked to the 2022 global outbreak.

As the health situation evolves, Kamituga's declining case numbers present a vital opportunity for intensified vaccination, surveillance, and educational initiatives. Georgette Hamuli, an 18-year-old sex worker in Goma, recently learned about mpox from vaccination teams visiting her neighborhood. “I think we’re now protected,” she expressed after receiving her vaccine, adding the crucial role of education and outreach efforts in her community.

The Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has estimated that Congo needs at least 3 million mpox vaccine doses to achieve herd immunity, with an additional 7 million required for the rest of Africa. Currently, WHO and its partners have allocated 900,000 vaccines to nine African nations affected by mpox, with an expectation of 6 million doses being available before the year wraps up.

The implications of mpox reach beyond Congo's borders; multiple neighboring countries—including Burundi, Kenya, Uganda, and Rwanda—have already traced their outbreaks back to Congolese cases. Even international travelers have sparked concern, with cases reported in countries such as Sweden, Thailand, and Germany.

Despite the challenges, the transitional response to this outbreak has been subpar, with fewer than half of high-risk populations vaccinated in Congo. Heather Kerr, the International Rescue Committee's director in Congo, highlighted the dire situation: "We only have a tiny amount of vaccines, and nothing for the kids.”

Vaccine supply has mainly come from donor countries and organizations like UNICEF. Dr. Chris Beyrer from the Global Health Institute at Duke University criticized the current approach, advocating instead for systematic public health strategies that prioritize large-scale immunization.

With the complexities introduced by the sexual transmission of mpox and the ongoing risk of zoonotic spillover from animals, experts like Dr. Salim Abdool Karim underline the urgency of the situation: “We’re in new territory with mpox this time. But we’re never going to solve this until we vaccinate most of our people.”

As the world watches the situation in Congo unfold, the focus must now shift to ensuring robust vaccination efforts—because without immediate action, the specter of a renewed outbreak looms ominously on the horizon.