Measles Returns as Vaccine Rates Drop

Once eradicated in the U.S., the measles virus is making a troubling comeback. Texas is currently grappling with over 750 reported cases, with more than half concentrated in Gaines County. This alarming resurgence is directly linked to declining measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccination rates, highlighting the critical need for widespread immunity in the face of mounting vaccine hesitancy.

Texas Study Reveals Shocking Potential for Outbreaks

A recent study published in JAMA Health Forum on September 19, 2025, by researchers from the University of Texas Health Science Center, modeled potential measles outbreaks throughout Texas counties. Using data from the recent Gaines County outbreak, they examined how minor fluctuations in vaccination rates could drastically shift the trajectory of an epidemic.

Decline in Vaccination Rates: What You Need to Know

Over the last decade, MMR vaccination rates among kindergarteners in Texas plummeted from an impressive 98.5% in the 2013-2014 school year to just 94.3% in 2024-2025. In Gaines County alone, rates took an even steeper dive from 92.6% to an alarming 82%. These gaps set the stage for the January 2025 introduction of measles into the area, leading to extensive local transmission.

Why Measles is So Dangerous

Measles is extraordinarily contagious—one infected person can transmit the virus to 12 to 18 others. This virus can linger in the air for hours, presenting significant risks in public spaces. To keep outbreaks at bay, a staggering 95% of the population must be adequately vaccinated.

What the Models Reveal: Scenarios of Outbreak Potential

The research team simulated three key scenarios: 1. Current reported vaccination rates 2. A 5% decline in immunization coverage 3. A 5% increase in immunization coverage Under current conditions, multiple counties—including Gaines, Walker, and Sterling—are projected to face outbreaks surpassing 12 cases per 1,000 individuals. If vaccination rates were to drop by just 5%, projections indicate some counties could see outbreak sizes exceeding 20 cases, with four hospitalizations per 1,000 residents.

The Silver Lining: Benefits of Increased Vaccination

On the flip side, a mere 5% increase in vaccination coverage could keep all counties below 15 reported cases and limit hospitalizations to three per 1,000 residents. This highlights how even slight improvements in vaccination rates can have profound public health impacts, reducing both the number of cases and the pressure on healthcare systems.

A Nationwide Concern: Lessons from Texas

As vaccination rates decline across several states, the situation in Texas serves as a crucial cautionary tale. The findings demonstrate how local breaks in vaccination coverage can ignite larger outbreaks—especially when compounded by cases imported from abroad.

Looking Ahead: What’s Next for Public Health?

The Texas measles situation in 2025 starkly illustrates how quickly progress can unravel when vaccination rates dip. For policymakers, healthcare providers, and community leaders, the mission is now twofold: restoring public trust in vaccines and reinforcing immunization systems that have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic and other challenges. With increased MMR vaccine uptake, we could determine the critical difference between contained clusters and sprawling state epidemics.