Critical Warnings for National Infrastructure

Critical national infrastructure (CNI) managers are receiving grave warnings regarding the potentially “unacceptable” impacts that severe space weather could have on essential sectors of society. A new report highlights that these rare but dangerous space weather events could occur once every 100 years, yet there remains a startling 10% chance of such an event happening within the next decade.

This urgent message comes from a co-author of the Severe Space Weather Impacts on UK Critical National Infrastructure report, part of the government-funded Space Weather Instrumentation, Measurement, Modelling, and Risk (SWIMMR) S6 project group. The report emphatically urges the government, regulators, and CNI operators to develop comprehensive space weather preparedness plans to safeguard vital services.

Understanding Space Weather

What is space weather? Disturbances from active regions on the Sun cause these phenomena, which, while beautifully showcased in the form of the aurora borealis and aurora australis, can wreak havoc on technology and infrastructure. These disturbances can significantly endanger critical systems, including space-based services like Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), satellite communications, and even ground-based systems like power grids and mobile cellular networks.

Recent Solar Activity

NASA confirmed in October 2024 that the Sun had entered a period of solar maximum, which is expected to last for at least a year. This escalated solar activity led to several instances of heightened space weather, even allowing stargazers on the southern coast of England to witness the spectacular auroras during the Winter of 2024/25.

The Implications of Readiness

Alastair Pidgeon, the Director of Business Development at Starion UK Limited and a co-author of the report, highlights the critical nature of readiness among CNI sectors. He stated, “The adequacy of the CNI preparedness depends on various factors, including the safety-critical nature of the infrastructure and the regulatory landscape.”

Interestingly, the 2025 update to the National Risk Register (NRR) estimated a 5-25% likelihood of a severe space weather event, suggesting that such occurrences could lead to “significant” consequences, including potential casualties ranging from 201 to 1,000 and economic damages amounting to billions. Given these severe ramifications, especially in safety-critical industries like nuclear energy and aviation, the threat posed by space weather cannot be ignored.

A Call for Action

While many sectors focus on more immediate risks, such as flooding or storms, Pidgeon cautions that neglecting space weather is a dangerous oversight. “In reality, there is a real risk to preparedness over a 10-year frame, casting doubt on the resilience of our essential services,” he lamented.

Pidgeon also noted the need for increased funding to address risks associated with the growing dependence on microelectronics, which are vulnerable to space weather impacts. The understanding of how individual infrastructure components, particularly newer nanoscale devices, cope with severe solar events is still insufficient.

Conclusion

The time to act is now! As experts prepare for the “unthinkable,” it’s clear that CNI managers must prioritize the resilience of the systems we depend on every day. Are our infrastructures truly prepared for the cosmic challenges that lie ahead?