A Rare Chance for Xi at ASEAN Summit

In a stunning potential shift, Chinese President Xi Jinping might break a decades-old tradition by appearing at the upcoming ASEAN Summit from October 26 to 28 in Kuala Lumpur. Analysts speculate that key factors, including a possible meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump and a desire to highlight the significance of ASEAN to China, could lure Xi to this pivotal gathering.

This would mark a significant departure from the norm, where China traditionally sends its premier to such summits. The last time a Chinese president attended an ASEAN summit in person was in 1997, when Jiang Zemin participated in the inaugural ASEAN-China meeting.

A Political Game Changer

Former Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has expressed optimism about Xi's attendance, suggesting that it could signal China's renewed commitment to engage with Southeast Asia. If confirmed, Xi's presence would undoubtedly elevate the stature of not only the summit but also Malaysia as the chair.

Ilango Karuppannan, a seasoned diplomat, emphasized that Xi's attendance could enhance ASEAN's central role in regional diplomacy and allow for a unique opportunity for U.S.-China leader-level engagement, especially since Trump is also confirmed to attend.

The Art of Diplomacy: Setting the Stage

For Xi to make this noteworthy appearance, analysts underscore the need for Malaysia to create an environment conducive for bilateral discussions between Xi and Trump. From ceremonial arrangements to logistical considerations, the stakes are high. As Sharon Seah from the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute points out, the perception of progress from Trump's visit is crucial, especially regarding U.S.-China tariff discussions.

The Global Impact of ASEAN Engagement

The recent extension of a truce over tariffs between the U.S. and China adds another layer of intrigue to Xi's potential appearance. With Southeast Asia increasingly positioned in the strategic calculus of both nations, the summit could serve as a critical venue for dialogue amid rising geopolitical tensions.

Experts believe that Xi attending the Summit would underscore both parties' commitment to integrating deeper economic ties, notably showcasing upcoming agreements like the upgraded ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). This would mark a critical step in diversifying trade relationships.

What’s Next for U.S.-China Relations?

While the prospect of a Xi-Trump meeting looms large, analysts suggest this alignment presents a unique opportunity for both leaders to reset their strained relationship. The last in-person encounter took place during the G20 Summit in Osaka in 2019, and since then, U.S.-China relations have seen escalating tensions.

Notably, the recent tones from U.S. officials imply room for a recalibration of the two nations' dynamics, with possibilities of further meetings beyond the ASEAN Summit, including a potential Trump visit to China later this year.

A Defining Moment for Malaysia and ASEAN

If Anwar successfully facilitates attendance from both leaders, it would contrast sharply with Malaysia's traditional diplomatic posture and solidify Kuala Lumpur's role as a neutral ground for dialogue among superpowers. The implications of such a meeting would extend beyond ASEAN, potentially impacting global trade dynamics and security.

Observers remain cautiously optimistic about the outcomes of a potential Xi-Trump summit, acknowledging that while seismic shifts may not occur, a de-escalation in trade tensions could benefit the broader ASEAN region.

The Countdown to October: Will Xi Show Up?

As the summit date approaches, the diplomatic chess game intensifies. Both leaders have a lot at stake, and the broader implications for ASEAN and the world are significant. Xi's attendance could not only mark a rare high-profile gathering of world leaders but could also set a new tone for future U.S.-China relations.