
Dollar Gains Against Euro Amid Profit-Taking as Trade Tensions Linger
2025-03-21
Author: Sarah
In a notable shift in the foreign exchange market, the U.S. dollar edged up against the euro on Friday, poised for its first weekly gain this month as traders took profits from the euro's recent surge. The euro slipped by 0.2% to $1.0834, marking a weekly decline of 0.3%, its first loss since February 28, as the April 2 deadline for reciprocal U.S. tariffs cast a shadow over investor sentiment.
This minor recovery for the dollar comes after a challenging year, particularly for the greenback, which faced headwinds due to concerns about the economic ramifications of the Trump administration's trade and tariffs policies. However, the Federal Reserve's recent announcements indicate a more cautious approach, suggesting it is not in a hurry to cut interest rates amid the current trade uncertainties.
The euro's decline also coincided with Germany's upper house of parliament, the Bundesrat, approving significant economic reforms, including a constitutional change concerning borrowing rules and a substantial 500-billion-euro fund aimed at revamping national infrastructure. This move is intended to bolster Europe's largest economy amidst ongoing challenges.
George Vessey, lead FX and macro strategist at Convera, commented, "It’s been a substantial rally in EUR/USD this quarter, so we're witnessing some profit-taking as the April 2 tariff deadline approaches." He also noted the market's muted reaction to Germany’s fiscal reforms, hinting at a potential peak in optimism regarding these changes.
Central banks globally, including the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan, opted to keep interest rates steady as they navigate the economic landscape reshaped by U.S. trade policies. The Fed's policymakers have indicated they may consider two quarter-point rate cuts later this year, mirroring earlier projections made three months ago.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the intricate challenges posed by the ongoing tariff policy, suggesting that the impact on inflation remains uncertain. With tariffs on intermediate goods and potential retaliations from other nations, the Fed is vigilant about how these factors might necessitate a policy response.
Convera's Vessey speculated that unless unexpected developments emerge from the Trump administration, the dollar may maintain its recent strength, benefiting from increased safe-haven flows.
Meanwhile, the dollar remained relatively stable against the yen, trading at 148.795. The Bank of Japan has also refrained from adjusting interest rates and acknowledged the growing economic uncertainties due to heightened U.S. trade tariffs.
In the UK, the pound decreased by 0.3% to $1.293 after the Bank of England cautioned that investors should not assume further rate cuts are certain, given the current volatility in both global and domestic economies.
Additionally, Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization, experienced a slight dip of about 1%, trading at approximately $83,682.
As the market continues to adjust to fluctuating economic indicators and trade policy developments, investors remain cautious, keenly watching how these factors will shape future currency valuations.