Introduction

SINGAPORE: Recent findings from the annual Population in Brief report reveal a concerning downward trend in both citizen marriages and Singaporean births in 2023. This data, released on September 24 by the National Population and Talent Division of the Prime Minister’s Office, paints a complex picture of Singapore's demographics.

Marriage Trends

In 2023, Singapore recorded a total of 24,355 citizen marriages, marking a 1.7% decline from the previous year’s peak of 24,767. Although this decline is notable, it still surpassed the pre-pandemic averages, highlighting resilience in marriage rates despite external challenges. However, the average number of marriages from 2019 to 2023 stands at 22,800, which is lower than the average of 24,000 recorded from 2014 to 2018.

A striking observation is the increasing age of brides and grooms; the median ages at first marriage for male and female citizens are now 30.7 and 29 years respectively, compared to 30.1 and 27.8 in 2013. Furthermore, around 36% of marriages last year were transnational, a figure consistent with pre-pandemic levels, while one in six were inter-ethnic, maintaining stability over the past decade.

This trend is coupled with a significant rise in the number of singles among Singaporean citizens aged 25 to 49, indicating shifting social dynamics. This change reflects a broader societal shift, with younger generations potentially prioritizing career and personal development over settling down.

Falling Birth Rates Present Challenges

The decline in births paints an even grimmer picture, as citizen births fell by 5.1% to 28,877 in 2023, compared to 30,429 the previous year. The total fertility rate (TFR), a critical measure of birth rates, has also dipped below 1.0 for the first time, reaching 0.97. This decline has been exacerbated by the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, which disrupted marriage and family planning for many couples.

Differentiating by ethnicity, the TFR stands at 0.81 for the Chinese community, 0.95 for Indians, and a higher 1.65 for the Malay population. As the median age of mothers at first birth increases — up to 31.4 years in 2023 from 30.2 in 2013 — concerns mount regarding the sustainability of the population growth amidst an ageing demographic.

In fact, Singapore is experiencing a rapid increase in its elderly population. The median age of citizens has risen to 43.4 years, and the proportion of citizens aged 65 and above has nearly doubled from 12.4% a decade ago to 19.9%. Predictions indicate that by 2030, almost a quarter of the population will belong to this age group.

Immigration Trends Offer a Glimmer of Hope

Despite these challenges, immigration continues to play a crucial role in Singapore's demographic landscape, with 23,472 individuals granted citizenship and 34,491 permanent residency last year. This is a reminder that immigration remains a vital strategy for population replenishment. Moreover, about 5.7% of new citizens, or 1,332 individuals, were children of Singaporean parents born abroad.

As Singapore grapples with these demographic shifts, experts warn that sustained efforts are essential to address the falling marriage and birth rates, alongside managing an ageing population. The implications of these trends could have far-reaching consequences on the economy, labor force, and social fabric of the nation if not effectively addressed.

Conclusion

This data challenges policymakers to seek innovative solutions to encourage family formation and child-rearing, which are critical for the nation's long-term sustainability. Could Singapore's future depend on revitalizing its marriage and birth rates? The answer remains to be seen, along with the potential impact of new immigration policies in the years to come.