China's Coal Conundrum: More Power and Renewables

In a shocking turn of events, China has ramped up its coal power production to new heights in the first half of this year, even while simultaneously achieving staggering milestones in renewable energy. A report released by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and Global Energy Monitor (GEM) reveals that the nation added a jaw-dropping 21GW of new coal power—its largest increase for the first six months since 2016.

The Statistics Behind the Surge

Despite making headway in renewable installations, coal still dominates China's energy landscape, accounting for roughly half of its electricity generation, down from a hefty three-quarters in 2016. However, the new coal projects under construction total a staggering 46GW, matching the entire coal output of South Korea. An additional 75GW is also proposed for revival, raising considerable concerns about China’s commitment to its carbon emission targets.

Conflicting Commitments

China stands at a critical juncture as the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, while also being a leader in clean energy advancements. The findings highlight a troubling paradox—the government pledged in 2021 to 'strictly control' coal production and consumption, aiming to phase it down between 2026 and 2030. Yet, only 1GW of coal power has been decommissioned in the first half of this year, starkly falling short of the targeted 30GW retirements slated from 2020 to the end of 2025.

Renewables Flourishing But Not Enough

In an unprecedented achievement, China installed a record 212GW of solar capacity in the first half of 2023, surpassing the total solar installations in the U.S. as of the end of 2024. Projections suggest that by 2025, China could install enough clean energy—encompassing solar, wind, nuclear, and hydro—to meet the combined electricity demand of Germany and Britain.

The Power Struggle

Yet despite this remarkable renewable growth, resilient 'powerful coal interests' continue to advocate for new projects, which could potentially suffocate the expansion of renewable sources. According to Qi Qin, lead author of the report, long-term contracts and persistent subsidies allow existing coal plants to operate at high output, thus hindering the space renewables desperately need to expand.

Looking Ahead: New Goals on the Horizon

As the climate crisis intensifies, China is expected to outline its new emissions and energy objectives with the details of its 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026 to 2030 set to be released soon. President Xi Jinping indicated that the country will unveil its greenhouse gas reduction commitments in advance of the COP30 conference this November, putting all eyes on whether they will truly align with ambitious sustainability goals.