As the excitement builds around the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff (CFP), fans are buzzing about potential upsets amidst the championship drama. The playoff format has introduced definitive favorites and underdogs, creating the perfect stage for memorable surprises.

However, the early rounds are shaping up to be a tough test for the underdog teams. Boise State and Arizona State have secured the third and fourth seeds, respectively, as conference champions, but they're not viewed as overwhelmingly dominant forces. Meanwhile, sportsbooks are setting hefty lines in favor of the home teams for this weekend's first-round matchups, with margins exceeding a touchdown.

Despite these challenges, the history of sports tells us that playoff underdogs often share common traits: a tendency to be underrated, a high-risk playing style, and a dash of bad luck that may turn to their advantage during critical games. To gauge the upset potential for this CFP round, we analyzed team power ratings from respected systems, including ESPN’s SP+, Massey Ratings, the Simple Rating System, and Team Rankings' Predictive Ratings.

Here’s a breakdown of how some matchups are shaping up, listed by their upset chances:

No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State

Upset Chance: 33.4% SMU enters as a +260 underdog, but our calculations suggest they have approximately a one-in-three chance of triumphing over Penn State. The Mustangs showcase a volatile performance index, which can work to their advantage in knockout scenarios. Quarterback Kevin Jennings leads a high-octane offense that has scored an impressive 501 points this season. However, their defense has struggled against the pass, allowing over 3,000 yards. A close, heart-wrenching loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship might have spurred them on to prove themselves in this critical matchup.

No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame

Upset Chance: 27.9% The Hoosiers have been a surprising success this season, but their soft schedule raises questions about their resilience against strong teams. Despite an impressive defensive record, they face a formidable Notre Dame squad that hasn’t allowed many touchdowns. Bettors are keen on Indiana, but statistical evidence leans toward the Fighting Irish maintaining a significant edge.

No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State

Upset Chance: 25% While Ohio State holds the slight edge, Tennessee boasts the eighth-best defense in the nation, having only let two teams score over 19 points all year. However, the Buckeyes demonstrate explosive potential, and this matchup promises to be both physical and closely contested, especially in the expected cold weather of Columbus. With a low projected total, underdog Tennessee could have a shot to keep the game tight.

No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Texas

Upset Chance: 22.8% Clemson’s chances at +325 are a reflection of the odds stacked against them. The Tigers are moderately ranked in variability and luck metrics, whereas Texas exhibits consistency and might be due for a breakout performance despite some misfortune. If Texas secures a win over Clemson, they are expected to advance significantly in the playoff picture, with an 85% chance of defeating Arizona State in the next round.

The Sweet Spot for Texas

The nature of the playoff brackets indicates that Texas's fifth seed could provide a strategic advantage compared to other teams. Their route could see them bypass tougher matchups, reinforcing the notion that they have a strong chance to reach the semifinals.

As college football purists prepare to revel in the nail-biting action ahead, the question remains: can underdogs create waves in this year’s playoff, or will the higher seeds merely validate their positions with dominant performances? The countdown to kickoff begins—let the games begin!