The United States, known for its iconic cities like San Francisco, New York, and Chicago, along with stunning national parks such as Yosemite, has long been a top destination for global travelers. With an impressive 66.5 million visitors in 2023 and expectations for an even higher turnout in 2024, it seemed nothing could deter travel to this North American giant.

However, recent developments are casting shadows over the travel landscape. The potential reelection of Donald Trump in 2024, coupled with shifts in foreign relations and a domestic cultural upheaval, has begun to change global perceptions of the US. These evolving attitudes are now seemingly affecting international tourism in a significant way.

According to a report from the research firm Tourism Economics, inbound travel to the US is now forecasted to decline by 5.5% this year instead of the previously anticipated growth of nearly 9%. This significant shift could lead to an estimated $18 billion (approximately £13.8 billion) reduction in tourist spending by 2025 due to escalating trade tariffs and economic tensions.

Evidence of this trend is already apparent, particularly from Canada, which is the largest source of international visitors to the US. Following the announcement of a substantial 25% tariff on numerous Canadian goods, there has been a staggering drop in the number of Canadians crossing the border, with some crossings experiencing declines of up to 45% compared to last year. Air Canada is responding to this downturn by cutting flights to various US holiday spots, including Las Vegas.

A poll by Canadian market researcher Leger indicated that 36% of Canadians who had planned trips to the US have already canceled. Additional research from aviation analytics firm OAG notes that passenger bookings from Canada to the US are down over 70% compared to the same time last year. The U.S. Travel Association has warned that even a minor reduction in Canadian travel, by just 10%, could result in a dramatic $2.1 billion (around £1.6 billion) loss in consumer spending, threatening approximately 140,000 jobs in the hospitality sector.

Unwelcome Atmosphere?

A section of potential tourists has cited a hostile political environment, marked by contentious rhetoric regarding immigration, foreigners, and the LGBTQ+ community, as deterrents. The Tourism Economics report attributes the rise in cancellations partially to the "polarizing policies and rhetoric" associated with Trump's administration.

Western Europeans, who represented 37% of overseas visitors to the US last year, are also reconsidering their travel plans. Rising tariffs are inflating domestic prices, while the US administration's well-publicized stance on the ongoing war in Ukraine has lessened its appeal. A survey conducted by YouGov found an alarming increase in unfavorable opinions of the US, with over half of respondents from the UK, Germany, and Sweden now viewing the country negatively.

Border Challenges

There have also been troubling headlines emerging from US border crossings that could dissuade international tourists. In March alone, a British woman was detained for over ten days due to visa issues, and a Canadian tourist faced a similar fate after attempting to renew her visa at the US-Mexico border. These incidents resonate deeply, especially considering that Mexico is the second-largest source of visitors to the US, with a noted 3% drop in visits during Trump's initial term and a 6% decrease in air travel already recorded for 2024.

Countries, including Canada and the UK, have started updating their travel advisories, warning visitors of potential arrest or detention for breaking rules, a notable shift from previous travel guidance. Similar advisories have sprung up from Germany and various European nations, particularly addressing transgender and non-binary individuals, given the US's new visa application policies requiring biological sex at birth declaration.

Shifting Travel Trends

As travelers spurn the US, alternative destinations are reaping the benefits. Bermuda has seen a surge in inquiries from Canadian tourists—and hotels are predicting a 20% increase in revenue from these visitors. Europe is also experiencing an increase in bookings, with some rental properties reporting a staggering 32% rise in summer reservations compared to last year.

Concerns are building around potential disruptions for sports events, like the 2026 FIFA World Cup and the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles. Visa processing delays could hinder participation from fans and athletes from countries like Brazil and Turkey, where wait times could stretch to an unbearable 700 days.

With ongoing visa challenges, stricter border enforcement, and mounting concerns regarding human rights and anti-minority sentiments, the US risks tarnishing its once-stellar reputation as a premier travel destination. The long-term repercussions for America's tourism industry could be profound, and it will require significant efforts to restore its former allure.

Are you planning your next vacation? The clock is ticking—consider your options wisely!