The Smart Bets and Risky Investments in MLB Free Agency: Why Goldschmidt is a Steal and Alonso is a Gamble

As the MLB offseason approaches, teams are scrambling to secure free agents who can elevate their rosters. Based on projected contracts for the top 50 free agents, it’s crucial to discern which players are worth the investment and which ones might prove to be disappointments. Last year's predictions had successes with players like Shota Imanaga and Sonny Gray, while avoiding megadeals for Blake Snell and Cody Bellinger. This year promises to be no different as we evaluate the landscape of free agency with a sharp eye on return on investment.

Top Free Agents to Invest In

1. Shane Bieber, RHP Projected Contract: 3 years, $54 million Bieber has seen a rollercoaster trajectory in his performance, from a promising young ace to struggling with injuries. Despite recent setbacks, including Tommy John surgery, he appears primed for a comeback. Having unveiled a regained velocity of 92.5 mph at the start of 2024, teams are presented with an opportunity to sign potentially one of the best pitchers at a reasonable price. This could pay significant dividends, particularly if he returns to full form, potentially becoming an invaluable asset halfway through the season.

2. Spencer Turnbull, RHP Projected Contract: 2 years, $13 million Turnbull, at 32, has battled injuries, but his early 2024 performance showcases signs of a possible renaissance with an innovative pitch mix. Given his impressive strikeout rate and low ERA before injury, his potential upside may be worth a modest investment, providing a solid option for teams seeking value-driven starters.

3. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B Projected Contract: 1 year, $18 million Goldschmidt, a former MVP, has not let age diminish his sharpness at the plate. Even after a disappointing season, metrics indicate he encountered tough luck more than decline in skill. His second-half stats reflect a resurgence, making him an enticing option for teams looking for a one-year deal without the qualifying offer’s strings attached. If teams can secure Goldschmidt below his projected market value, it will be a smart maneuver.

Three Free Agents to Avoid

1. Pete Alonso, 1B Projected Contract: 6 years, $159 million Alonso's impending contract represents a high-risk investment, especially after a subpar season. His inability to contribute significantly defensively or on the basepaths while playing first base — a less valuable position — raises red flags. For teams considering a hefty investment, cheaper alternatives like Christian Walker could offer similar production at a fraction of the cost.

2. Carlos Estevez, RHP Projected Contract: 3 years, $36 million Estevez's breakout year should be taken with caution. His performance improvements appear linked to external factors rather than sustainability, which means he might not replicate his success moving forward. Coupled with declining velocity and diminished strikeout rates, directing funds towards more stable relievers could be wiser.

3. Justin Turner, 1B Projected Contract: 1 year, $10 million At nearly 40 years old, Turner still offers experience, but his production has steadily fallen. Making a play for Turner could be beneficial for mentorship within a younger clubhouse, but the risk of complete decline overshadows potential upside.

As teams navigate the complexities of MLB free agency, awareness about the players' actual performance, the projected contracts, and the overall impact on their rosters will be pivotal. Making intelligent decisions with signings will not only bolster team rosters but could also pave the way for a successful upcoming season. Are you ready to dive into free agency? It’s going to be a wild ride!