Finance

The Economic Time Bomb: 790,000 Jobs and $160 Billion GDP Loss if Inflation Reduction Act is Repealed!

2025-03-23

Author: Ting

Introduction

In 2022, Hyundai made headlines by investing a staggering $5.5 billion to construct a groundbreaking “Metaplant” dedicated to manufacturing electric vehicles and batteries in Bryan County, Georgia. This ambitious project was projected to create over 3,500 well-paying jobs not only for constructing the facility but also for the ongoing production of electric vehicles (EVs) that could significantly lower consumer transportation costs.

Georgia's Congressman Buddy Carter hailed the investment as the "largest in the state’s history," emphasizing its role in diversifying the economy and enriching job prospects for generations. The Metaplant opened its doors in October 2024, several months ahead of schedule, and quickly began rolling out Hyundai Ioniq 5 EVs, which ranked as the fourth best-selling EV in America. This facility has since contributed millions in salaries, tax revenues, and overall economic activity in Southeast Georgia.

The Impact of the Inflation Reduction Act

This scenario illustrates just how the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has become a catalyst for economic growth through federal clean energy tax credits and funding initiatives. By January 2025, these policies had attracted a remarkable $600 billion in private investment across around 750 projects, resulting in over 406,000 new jobs being created.

However, with proposals from the Trump administration to repeal IRA policies in order to fund tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans now under serious consideration in Congress, there’s growing concern over potential economic fallout. Ironically, a significant portion—77%—of IRA-related investments have been funneled into Republican congressional districts, which may explain why 21 GOP House Members are opposed to its repeal.

Predicted Economic Fallout

According to projections from New Energy Innovation, the economic ramifications of repealing the IRA could be catastrophic. By 2030, nearly 790,000 jobs would vanish and $160 billion could be wiped off America's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). From 2025 to 2035, households might see an additional $32 billion burden from surging energy bills, with a staggering $190 billion potential loss to national GDP by 2035.

The repercussions of such a repeal go beyond job losses. Major companies could retract plans to construct new factories, halting potential private investments as the government sends a troubling signal: the clean energy economy in America is no longer a viable option. With fewer clean energy manufacturing facilities emerging, essential construction activities will also dwindle, further exacerbating job losses and income reductions nationwide.

Current Investments and Job Losses

This grim economic forecast is backed by verifiable data. Since January 2025, over $57 billion in investment has been stalled or canceled due to proposals from the Trump administration, alongside significant job losses estimated at 42,000. Additionally, a report by Moody's assessed the impact of these policy shifts, predicting a rise in inflation and stunted economic growth that could lead into recession by mid-2025.

As clean energy technologies such as solar panels, EVs, and batteries are sidelined, consumers would inevitably face soaring energy prices, subjecting them to fluctuations dictated by the global market. Between 2018 and 2023, average electricity prices in the U.S. surged nearly 22%, with forecasts suggesting an additional 7% increase in 2025, especially if gas prices rise dramatically—by approximately 91% by 2026, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

State-Specific Impacts

Repealing the IRA would further escalate these trends. A recent analysis for the right-leaning group ConservAmerica predicts that cancelling just two of the IRA’s tax credits could hike consumer electricity costs by a staggering $51 billion annually by 2035. Industry leaders, like John Ketchum, CEO of NextEra, have warned that eliminating renewable energy options will cause electricity prices to skyrocket.

If the IRA is repealed, each state will feel the pinch, facing job losses, increased consumer costs, decreased GDP, and diminished private investments. However, five states stand to experience the most significant setbacks: Texas, California, Florida, Georgia, and Pennsylvania.

Texas, historically a leader in coal and natural gas, is now heavily reliant on wind and solar energy. If the IRA is scrapped, Texas homeowners could face an additional $8.1 billion in energy bills from 2025 to 2035, with job losses reaching 115,000 and GDP shrinking by $20.3 billion by 2035.

In California, where rising electricity bills are a growing concern, families may find themselves shelling out $6.4 billion more in energy costs from 2025 to 2035. This state could lose approximately 38,400 jobs alongside a drop in GDP of $12.6 billion by 2035.

Meanwhile, Florida is stepping up its solar energy initiatives, but a repeal would force households to pay $4.6 billion more for energy during the same timeframe, potentially costing 40,800 jobs and a $6.8 billion reduction in GDP.

Georgia, benefitting significantly from electric vehicle and battery manufacturing, would see job losses of about 28,600 and a $5.8 billion hit to GDP by 2035, coupled with $2.1 billion in increased energy bills.

Pennsylvania, a pivotal swing state, would witness significant hardships as well, dealing with $2.1 billion more in energy costs, 29,000 job losses, and a $5.6 billion GDP drop in 2035.

Conclusion

Given these staggering potential impacts, one must wonder why we would risk undermining America’s recent economic recovery. The country deserves the freedom to embrace cost-effective energy advancements like solar and electric vehicles rather than remaining tethered to outdated and expensive energy sources.

As of 2024, the global clean energy market was valued at an impressive $2 trillion. Abandoning this vital sector could mean relinquishing economic opportunities to competitors such as China, while American factories close and workers find it increasingly difficult to secure jobs.

The choices Congress makes today will shape the future of the American economy for decades. Repealing policies that generate employment, combat inflation, and bolster GDP is not in line with the foundational principles of how business should operate in America—or at least, it shouldn't be.