Introduction

When President Joe Biden meets Chinese Premier Xi Jinping this Saturday for what is anticipated to be their final encounter, it promises to be a moment of reflection on a complex relationship that has unfolded over the last decade. Their connection traces back to a significant dinner in Chengdu, during which Biden famously defined America in one word: "Possibilities." This poignant moment has been referenced by Biden numerous times over the past four years, underscoring the weight he places on their interactions.

The Overhanging Shadow of Trump

However, as Biden and Xi engage in discussions, the atmosphere will be overshadowed by the lingering prospect of Donald Trump's potential return to the White House. His unpredictable foreign policy stances and nationalist rhetoric could redefine the landscape of international relations, especially between the United States and China. As world leaders gather in Lima for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, Trump's past embrace of tariffs and autocrats raises concerns about the future of international cooperation.

Xi's Remarks at APEC

During his address at the APEC summit, Xi remarked that the world has "entered a new period of turbulence and transformation," highlighting the growing threats posed by unilateralism and protectionism. His desire for stability stands in stark contrast to the uncertainty that Trump's unpredictable decisions could bring.

Potential Aggression from Trump

Signs indicate that, should Trump reclaim the presidency in the future, his approach could lean towards aggression—particularly with mounting tensions surrounding trade. Trump has indicated plans for substantial tariffs on Chinese imports, threatening to escalate an already fractious relationship. Yet, there are lingering memories of his earlier attempts to build rapport with Xi, aiming to secure significant trade agreements, which ultimately faltered.

The Challenges Ahead

As Biden prepares to engage in talks with Xi, he faces the challenging reality that there may be little he can offer to reassure the Chinese leader about future U.S.-China relations. Frequent discussions are expected to touch on pressing issues such as Taiwan, human rights, and drug trafficking while also addressing specific grievances like alleged attempts by China's hackers to breach Trump’s communication networks.

The Complexity of Their Relationship

Contrary to high expectations, this meeting isn't expected to yield dramatic breakthroughs; instead, it serves as an opportunity for both leaders to revisit their lengthy and sometimes convoluted relationship. Biden recalls his extensive history with Xi, having previously reached out to gauge Xi's intentions before he ascended to leadership in China. However, Xi's recent pivot toward strengthening ties with Vladimir Putin raises alarms about the formation of a new anti-Western coalition comprised of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea.

Geopolitical Implications

The implications of these geopolitical shifts are profound, as the U.S. observes evidence of China supplying technology to Russia for military applications amid its ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Attention also turns to North Korea's potential involvement in supporting Russia's military efforts, an evolving situation that looms large over discussions in Peru.

Maintaining Communication and Stability

As the two leaders meet, Biden's focus will be on maintaining communication and stability in an uncertain climate. His administration has worked to reinforce partnerships with Japan and South Korea, acknowledging this triad as a strategic counterbalance to China's growing influence. Biden's recent efforts to mend historically fraught relations between Tokyo and Seoul exemplify his commitment to a lasting legacy in East Asia.

Looking Forward

Looking forward, the outcome of this pivotal summit could set the stage for future interactions between the United States and China, particularly if Trump returns to power. How he navigates the international landscape will also be of interest, as Biden hopes the collaborations he has fostered can endure. As he indicated in his remarks, "I think it’s built to last," highlighting his vision for sustained cooperation in the face of evolving geopolitical dynamics.

Conclusion

The time for reflection is now, but the future remains shrouded in uncertainty. Only time will tell how these interactions will shape global diplomacy and whether Biden’s legacy will hold strong in the face of potential changes in leadership and policy direction.