A Long-Awaited Plunge to Earth

Get ready for a nostalgic throwback to the Cold War as a Soviet-era spacecraft, originally intended for a Venus mission, gears up for an uncontrolled descent back to Earth! Launched in 1972, this relic from the past, named Kosmos 482, never made it beyond Earth’s orbit due to a rocket failure, but it has surprisingly lingered overhead for more than half a century.

When Will It Fall?

Experts predict that the spacecraft will crash back to Earth around May 10, hitting speeds of 150 mph (242 kph) upon reentry, assuming it stays intact. Marco Langbroek, a Dutch scientist monitoring the situation, suggests that while the event carries some risk, it's not cause for panic. "The risk is comparable to being struck by a random meteorite," he stated.

What Happens Next?

Langbroek reassures us, saying the odds of it hitting anyone or anything significant are quite low. However, he adds a caveat: "It can’t be completely ruled out." Most of the spacecraft has descended over the decades, but the capsule itself—a spherical object about 3 feet wide—has remained in a highly elliptical orbit until now.

Could It Survive?

This substantial 1,000-pound (nearly 500-kilogram) metal capsule was initially designed to resist the intense conditions of Venus’s carbon dioxide atmosphere. This might work to its advantage now; it could potentially endure the reentry. However, experts are skeptical about the effectiveness of its parachute and heat shield after decades in orbit.

A Fiery Finale?

According to Jonathan McDowell from the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, if the heat shield holds up, we could see a dramatic half-ton object plummeting to Earth intact—a truly spectacular sight. On the flip side, a failing heat shield would result in a fiery incineration during descent.

Possible Landing Zones

The reentry will occur within a broad range of latitudes, from as far north as London and Edmonton to the southernmost tip of South America. Fortunately, most of Earth is covered by water, increasing the odds of this vintage spacecraft landing in the ocean.

Stay Tuned for Impact!

As we await this historic event, keep your eyes on the skies! Kosmos 482 may not have succeeded in its mission to Venus, but its return journey is sure to capture the world’s imagination.