Overview

According to a report from Ukraine's Defense Intelligence (HUR) issued on December 15, Russian forces stationed in Syria are grappling with severe shortages of food and drinking water, creating significant logistical challenges. The shortages are notably affecting personnel at Russia’s Khmeimim Air Base, the Tartus Naval Base, as well as vessels positioned off the coast of Tartus.

Military Presence and Supply Challenges

Moscow has maintained a military presence in these bases since 2017, a move which has solidified their strategic operations in the region. In response to the ongoing shortages, HUR reported that two transport planes were scheduled to depart from Russia for the Khmeimim Air Base to deliver essential supplies and assist in the evacuation of stranded troops. Furthermore, on December 10, HUR indicated that multiple military transport planes and naval vessels were en route to Syria for troop and equipment evacuations.

Air Operations

HUR noted that as of Monday morning, Russian transport aircraft were actively shuttling between Syria and airfields in Russia. The aircraft involved include the Il-76MD, operating under the 196th Military Transport Aviation Regiment, along with additional Il-76MDs and An-124-100s linked to the Ministry of Defense.

Troop Withdrawals and Agreements

Moreover, reports suggest that Russia has been steadily withdrawing its personnel from various outposts across Syria, at times coordinating movements with rebel factions, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), who have been instrumental in combating the Assad regime backed by Moscow. An HTS official confirmed that in recent days, approximately 400 Russian troops were evacuated from the vicinity of Damascus to the Khmeimim Air Base.

Speculation on Future Presence

There is speculation among Russian troops regarding an alleged agreement that may permit Moscow to maintain a contingent of up to 3,000 soldiers across its two Syrian bases, although HUR did not clarify the source of this information, making its credibility uncertain.

Russia's Role in Syria

Russia has been a pivotal supporter of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad since 2015, providing military intervention through airstrikes, arms shipments, and the deployment of military advisors aimed at quelling opposition forces.

Conclusion

As this situation unfolds, the implications of these logistical challenges and troop withdrawals could significantly affect the balance of power in the region. Will Russia be able to sustain its military influence in Syria amid these troubling developments? Stay tuned as we uncover more on this evolving story.