In a harrowing incident that shook the nation, at least 26 tourists were gunned down in Pahalgam, marking the bloodiest militant assault in Kashmir since 2019. This attack didn't target soldiers or officials; it claimed the lives of ordinary civilians enjoying a getaway in one of India's most stunning locales.

The very nature of this assault is both brutal and symbolic, representing an attack not only on lives but also on the fragile sense of normalcy that the Indian government has endeavored to maintain in this contested territory.

Given Kashmir's tumultuous history—claimed entirely by both India and Pakistan but controlled in parts—India's impending response is anticipated to reflect both historical precedents and external pressures, according to experts.

In immediate reaction, the Indian government has taken significant steps: closing the primary border crossing, suspending an essential water-sharing agreement, and expelling diplomats.

Defence Minister Rajnath Singh has made it clear that a "strong response" is forthcoming. He committed to taking action not only against the immediate perpetrators but also those orchestrating these "nefarious acts" within India.

The looming question, analysts say, is not if there will be military retaliation, but rather when it will occur, how measured it will be, and the potential ramifications it may carry.

Military historian Srinath Raghavan emphasized that India is likely to opt for a robust response that resonates with both its domestic audience and Pakistani actors. Since recent escalations began in 2016, India has drastically changed its response threshold, hinting at the possibility of cross-border strikes, making lower-level responses increasingly difficult.

Raghavan recalled significant historical responses: after the 2016 Uri attack that claimed 19 Indian soldiers, India executed surgical strikes across the Line of Control targeting militant positions in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir. Similarly, the 2019 Pulwama attack that killed over 40 soldiers was met with airstrikes in Balakot, Pakistan—India's first major strike on Pakistani soil since 1971.

Despite agreeing to a ceasefire in 2021, tensions have persisted with continued militant attacks in Indian-administered Kashmir.

Foreign policy analyst Michael Kugelman highlighted that the high casualty count and the targeting of civilians suggest a real possibility of a military response from India, particularly if the government perceives any level of Pakistani involvement. He noted the strong public sentiment pushing for decisive action might prevail.

While Indian military retaliation could politically benefit the government, potentially degrading militant threats, the risks of escalating into a severe crisis and conflict remain significant. This precarious balance is intensified by the fact that both India and Pakistan are nuclear-armed states.

Experts suggest India has two main paths ahead. First, the fragile LaC ceasefire could give way to renewed cross-border engagements under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s direction. Alternatively, the option of airstrikes or cruise missile launches, as seen in previous conflicts, could be revisited, each option carrying the weight of potentially spiraling retaliatory actions.

Yet, the unpredictable nature of these responses leaves all parties bracing for unforeseen consequences, as seen in past conflict patterns where both sides ultimately sought to de-escalate tensions following initial strikes.

Ultimately, as India contemplates its next move, the specter of nuclear capability looms large, shaping a calculation of caution amid a backdrop of escalating violence and mounting public pressure.