Could the Axial Seamount Erupt Soon?

A looming underwater volcano off Oregon is in the spotlight, as researchers debate whether it might erupt by the end of this year. The Axial Seamount, situated about 300 miles from the Oregon coast and lying nearly 4,900 feet beneath the Pacific Ocean's surface, has scientists intrigued, yet they believe an eruption is not immediately on the horizon.

What Makes Axial Seamount Unique?

This volcanic giant is the most active submarine volcano in the northeast Pacific. Over the past 30 years, it has erupted three times—most recently in 2015. Its depth is staggering; it's about two-and-a-half times the height of the One World Trade Center, making it a fascinating subject for researchers like Bill Chadwick from Oregon State University and Scott Nooner from the University of North Carolina.

Is There Cause for Alarm?

Not quite. Thanks to its depth and relatively gentle lava flow, the Axial Seamount poses no serious threat to human life or underwater navigation, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. In fact, if you were cruising above it in a boat during an eruption, you likely wouldn't even notice!

Why Monitor the Axial Seamount?

Researchers are keen to track this underwater volcano because its eruptions can provide critical insights into volcanic activity on land. A rush of earthquakes and ground deformation often precedes eruptions, offering valuable data for forecasting. Chadwick describes this area as a natural lab for studying long-term volcanic behavior without the immediate risks posed by land-based volcanoes.

What’s the Current Situation?

While the volcano is still forecasted to erupt this year, signs indicate a decline in its inflation rate—an essential factor for predicting eruptions. The volcano had reached inflation levels similar to those preceding the 2015 eruption earlier this year, but as of July, those levels have been decreasing. Notably, more than 2,000 tremors were recorded in a single day near Axial Seamount in June, raising some eyebrows, though these events are not under immediate concern.

Looking Ahead: The Uncertain Future of Axial Seamount

Despite June's seismic activity and the impact of a tsunami from an unrelated earthquake near Russia, researchers maintain a cautious stance. While the long-term forecast suggests a possible eruption in 2025, recent fluctuations in magma inflation and seismicity have led to uncertainty. For now, Chadwick reassures us: "Nothing appears to be imminent at the moment, and I'm not expecting an eruption 'any day now.'" Stay tuned as scientists continue to monitor this fascinating underwater phenomenon!