Nintendo has set its sights high with a forecast of 15 million units sold for the upcoming Switch 2 within its first financial year. However, analysts believe this figure could be too modest, attributing concerns to the console's pricing. As anticipation builds, questions arise: Could a strong launch guarantee success, or does a sellout merely mask potential pitfalls?

To answer these questions, we can turn to Nintendo's history. By examining past console launches, particularly in their first year, we can glean insights into how the Switch 2 may fare. Keep in mind that sales data only started being reported quarterly in the mid-2000s, and older consoles had staggered releases across regions, complicating direct comparisons.

Nintendo’s Top Console Launches:

Here are the standout launches from Nintendo, ranked by their first-year sales:

1. Game Boy Advance: 18.1 Million

Launched between March and June 2001, the Game Boy Advance dominated with approximately 18.1 million sales in its first year, ultimately reaching 81.51 million lifetime sales. A successor to the incredibly successful Game Boy, its robust performance was expected.

2. 3DS: 15.03 Million

Following closely, the 3DS saw about 15.03 million units sold in its first year (February-March 2011) but ended its life with 75.94 million units. Though it launched amid high expectations due to its predecessor, the DS, it didn’t quite replicate that success.

3. Switch: 14.86 Million

Released in March 2017, the Switch had strong initial sales of 14.86 million, later achieving lifetime sales of 152.12 million, proving to be a resounding success.

4. Wii: 13.17 Million

The Wii, coming out in late 2006, had first-year sales of 13.17 million and a final tally of 101.63 million. Both the Wii and Switch share sales over 10 million in their launch year and have exceeded 100 million in total.

5. DS: 8.83 Million

The DS launched between November 2004 and March 2005 with 8.83 million sales, eventually reaching 154.02 million. While its initial sales were lower than expected, it picked up momentum rapidly thereafter.

6. GameCube: 6.7 Million

With sales around 6.7 million between 2001 and 2002, the GameCube struggled with software support, resulting in a final tally of 21.74 million.

7. Nintendo 64: 5.80 Million

The Nintendo 64 achieved 5.80 million in its first four quarters but ultimately hit 32.93 million, also affected by a lack of games.

8. Game Boy: 3.93 Million

The Game Boy launched with 3.93 million sales due to its gradual rollout, yet it went on to become a household name with 118.69 million sales thanks to Tetris.

9. Wii U: 3.91 Million

Initially, the Wii U moved over 3 million units at launch but tanked afterward, ultimately selling only 13.56 million. It showcased a cautionary tale of failing to maintain momentum.

10. Super Famicom/SNES: 2.9 Million

The Super Famicom had approximately 2.9 million in first-year sales, reaching 49.1 million, but struggled in the global market against competitors.

11. Famicom/NES: 2.5 Million

The NES began with 2.5 million sales by the end of 1984 in Japan, tallying up to 61.91 million as it faced a slow introduction to the western markets.

12. Virtual Boy: 770,000

Finally, a dismal launch, the Virtual Boy sold only 770,000 units before being discontinued within a year.

What Lies Ahead for Switch 2?

If Nintendo manages to achieve, or surpass, that ambitious goal of 15 million sales for the Switch 2, it will stand among the greatest console launches in Nintendo history. With a Wii U-style disaster appearing unlikely, the concern rests on sustainability and long-term sales.

Reflecting on Nintendo's top launches—like the Game Boy Advance and 3DS—both consoles were sequels to previous hits but struggled to capture the same market excitement. Could the Switch 2, despite a strong start, face a similar fate? Only time will tell.