Sport

March Madness 2025: Essential Predictions for the NCAA First Four Showdown

2025-03-19

Author: Jia

As we kick off March Madness 2025, the excitement is palpable, with the last two spots in the coveted NCAA Tournament 64-team bracket up for grabs during Wednesday's First Four in Dayton, Ohio. This thrilling event will set the stage for what promises to be an exhilarating First Round, where fans will be treated to continuous March Madness action that spans from midday into the evening over the upcoming weekend.

The First Four kicks off with an intense matchup of No. 16 seeds in the East Region, featuring the American Eagles, champions of the Patriot League, facing off against the Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers, champions of the MAAC. This contest presents both teams a chance to shine on a national stage, even if success leads to a daunting challenge against the heavily favored Duke in Friday's lineup.

Later in the evening, excitement builds as two No. 11 seeds, the Texas Longhorns and Xavier Musketeers, clash in a critical Midwest Region battle. Both squads experienced rollercoaster seasons, leading to their spots in the First Four. Texas enters with a disappointing 12 losses in conference play, while Xavier's struggles include just one significant victory against a top-tier opponent. However, the onset of the tournament resets the narrative—every match is now a do-or-die situation. Historically, we’ve seen teams from the First Four make it to at least the Round of 32 in 12 out of the 13 years since the tournament's introduction. With the potential for either Xavier or Texas to upset the No. 6 seed Illinois in the First Round on Friday, the stakes couldn't be higher.

Now, let’s break down the matchups for Wednesday's action with some essential betting insights.
(16) American vs. (16) Mount St. Mary's

*Tip-off: 6:40 PM ET on TruTV | March Madness Live*

This matchup isn't your typical struggle between giant programs, but the rivalry runs deep. Located just 62 miles apart, American and Mount St. Mary's have faced off a staggering 70 times, with American holding a narrow edge in their all-time series. However, the Mountaineers, guided by first-year coach Donny Lind, are riding high on a record-setting season with 22 wins. They boast an impressive track record against the spread—22-10-1 overall, including a striking 14-3 mark as a road underdog. Their defense has also proven formidable, allowing opponents to score under 60 points during the conference tournament. The Mountaineers are poised to upset the Eagles in what promises to be a tightly contested, low-scoring affair.

Pick: Mount St. Mary's +2.5
(11) Xavier vs. (11) Texas

*Tip-off: 9:10 PM ET on TruTV | March Madness Live*

Texas may have had a tumultuous season with a subpar conference record, but their potential is undeniable. The Longhorns have excelled against quality opponents, racking up significant wins that showcase their capability. Yet, inconsistency has plagued their performance. Conversely, Xavier has gained momentum with the return of star forward Zach Freemantle and has been playing an impressive style of basketball characterized by quick pace and superior shooting efficiency. Ryan Conwell has especially shone recently, boasting an astounding conversion rate on three-pointers. In a potential high-scoring showdown, Xavier has the offensive firepower to outlast Texas in what promises to be a thrilling contest.

Pick: Xavier -2.5

As the drama of March Madness unfolds, these initial matchups set the tone for what could be an unforgettable tournament experience. Buckle up, because the road to the Final Four begins now!