Israel's Military Operations in Syria

Israel's recent military operations in Syria have raised alarms over an escalating confrontation with Turkey as both nations vie for influence in a war-torn region unstable under a new Syrian government.

The Airstrikes

On Wednesday evening, Israel executed airstrikes targeting multiple military sites in Syria, notably the Hama military airport and the T4 base near Homs. The aftermath was devastating, with Syria’s foreign ministry declaring that the Hama facility was nearly obliterated. Reports from a prominent Syrian human rights organization confirmed the tragic death of four defense ministry employees and injuries to a dozen others.

Targeting Turkey?

While these strikes clearly struck at Syrian military assets, analysts suggest their primary audience was Ankara. Following the air raids, Israel's foreign minister criticized Turkey's involvement in Syria, labeling it as playing a “negative role.” Israel's defense minister issued a stern warning to Syria's interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, threatening severe repercussions if he permitted “hostile forces” to operate within his borders.

Turkey's Strategic Position

Turkey is currently in negotiations to establish a joint defense agreement with Sharaa’s government. Recent intelligence suggests Turkey plans to deploy aircraft and advanced air defense systems at significant sites like T4 and Aleppo. Some specialists noted that the scale of Israel's assaults on Hama seemed more intense compared to lighter strikes near T4, indicating that Turkish military equipment may already be positioned there, prompting Israel to calibrate its response to prevent an unchecked escalation.

Tensions Between Israel and Turkey

Tensions between Israel and Turkey have dramatically soured following the onset of the Gaza conflict, with Ankara imposing trade sanctions and accusing Israel of genocide. These regional disputes have spilled over into Syria, as illustrated by Turkey's condemnation of Israel’s recent strikes as destabilizing forces that exacerbate chaos and threaten regional security.

Turkey's Stance on Conflict

Despite this, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has stressed that Turkey is not looking to ignite a confrontation with Israel and insisted that Syria should determine its own policies in relation to its neighboring country. Since replacing Bashar al-Assad last December, President Sharaa has maintained a non-confrontational stance towards Israel, emphasizing peace and normalization of relations, although such discussions remain sensitive and premature.

Israeli Military Operations

As Sharaa strives to unite a fragmented Syria and stabilize external relations, Israel's persistent military incursions complicate his efforts. The Israeli military continues to actively target Syrian munitions depots and military sites, declaring the necessity for these actions to prevent weaponry from reaching adversarial forces. Israeli operations have included maintaining a demilitarized buffer zone established after the 1973 Arab-Israeli war and conducting systematic incursions into southwestern Syria. There, they aim to eliminate any presence of armed groups or hostile government forces.

Recent Clashes

Recent clashes in the city of Deraa resulted in the unfortunate deaths of nine civilians due to Israeli bombardment, marking one of the most significant incursions yet by Israeli troops. Additionally, an incident near the village of Koya saw four fatalities when local fighters confronted advancing Israeli forces. Calls for jihad have since reverberated throughout mosques in Deraa and Damascus, reflecting growing unrest and resentment towards Israeli operations.

Expert Analysis

Charles Lister, a noted expert from the Middle East Institute, has reported over 70 ground incursions by Israeli forces in southwestern Syria since February 2023, describing this period as extraordinarily perilous. Notably, since the regime change in Syria, there have been no direct attacks on Israel from Syrian territory, with Syrian security forces successfully intercepting numerous weapons shipments intended for Hezbollah and dismantling several Iranian-aligned rocket launch sites.

Geopolitical Maneuvering

As tensions continue to rise, the fragile balance in the region hangs in the balance, heightening the stakes not just for Syria, but also for Turkey and Israel amidst their geopolitical maneuvering. The coming weeks may prove crucial as the involved parties reassess their strategies in this increasingly complex theater of conflict.