Finance

Is XRP Set for a Surge? Examining the Odds of this Altcoin Hitting Its Mid-Term Target!

2025-06-30

Author: Ling

XRP is currently positioned in a fascinating bullish setup, but what does the future hold for this cryptocurrency? Recent trends indicate a high buying volume, yet the currency's transaction rates and network expansion have taken a hit.

Rising Speculation vs. Declining Activity

The rising NVT (Network Value to Transactions) and Stock-to-Flow ratios highlight an intriguing situation where speculative pressure seems to overpower real on-chain utility. XRP is moving within a significant symmetrical triangle pattern, which has been forming since its dramatic surge at the end of 2024. Notably, the price has established a series of higher lows and lower highs, indicating a tightening in preparation for a breakout.

Currently priced at $2.19—hovering just above a critical support level of $2.08—the major resistance levels loom at $2.35 and $2.61. Traders are keenly watching these zones, as breaking through could trigger a robust bullish momentum.

Are Bulls Stealthily Accumulating?

Interestingly, the 90-day Spot Taker Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) shows sustained buyers' dominance in the market, suggesting that traders are anticipating a significant move. Despite the price stagnation, aggressive market buy-side activity hints at underlying bullish sentiment, even as on-chain metrics are showing a downward trend.

A Concerning Drop in Network Activity

XRP's transaction count has plummeted to about 383K, one of the lowest daily figures recorded since March. Network growth has also dwindled to merely 892, indicating an alarming dip in user adoption and interest. While traders are betting on a breakout, the underlying health of the network appears to be weakening.

Is XRP Overvalued? NVT Ratio Raises Red Flags

The NVT ratio, which juxtaposes market capitalization against daily transaction volume, has skyrocketed to an extreme 4510. This escalation implies that XRP's valuation may have surged past its actual utility on the blockchain, creating uncertainty about its fair value.

Can Scarcity Offset Weak Demand?

Meanwhile, the Stock-to-Flow ratio has shown an increase, suggesting that XRP is becoming scarcer due to a slowdown in new supply entering the market. While scarcity can support long-term price growth, it has not been met with a corresponding uptick in demand or utility. Without a rebound in network activity or institutional interest, this imbalance may not last.

Will XRP’s Compression Lead to a Major Breakout?

In summary, XRP is at a crucial juncture. Its long-term triangle pattern, combined with increasing buy-side volume, suggests that a major upward movement could be imminent. However, if the underlying on-chain weaknesses persist, the anticipated rally may face significant hurdles.

As we look towards the coming weeks, a decisive breakout above the triangle—with robust volume and improving on-chain metrics—could lead XRP to achieve its mid-term targets. But if conditions remain stagnant, any upward movement might be short-lived.