Introduction

As global leaders gather at the UN's Cop29 climate conference in Azerbaijan, alarming new data reveals that the world is not on track to meet its promises of transitioning away from fossil fuels. With 2024 expected to set a new record for carbon emissions, the urgency for action has never been greater.

Projected Increase in Emissions

According to the latest report, emissions from oil, gas, and coal are projected to rise by 0.8% in 2024. This increase starkly contrasts with the necessity of reducing emissions by a staggering 43% by 2030 to keep global warming below the critical 1.5°C threshold, which experts warn could lead to increasingly severe climate impacts worldwide.

Commitments vs. Reality

During the last summit, Cop28 held in Dubai, leaders proclaimed a historic commitment to reduce reliance on fossil fuels. Sultan Al Jaber, the Cop28 president, emphasized, “History will judge us by our actions, not our words.” Despite these proclamations, the current trajectory raises concerns about the effectiveness of these commitments.

Current Emissions Trends

The current decade has seen a reduction in the growth rate of carbon emissions, largely due to the rise in renewable energy sources and electric vehicles. Nevertheless, recent extreme weather events—heatwaves, floods, and severe storms—have intensified calls for immediate and decisive action from negotiators in Baku.

Funding for Developing Nations

One of the central themes of Cop29 is mobilizing the necessary funds—approximately one trillion dollars annually—for developing nations. This funding aims not only to help these nations curb emissions but also to protect their citizens from the impending climate chaos as they strive to improve living conditions.

The Global Carbon Budget Report

The report from the Global Carbon Budget project, led by experts like Prof. Pierre Friedlingstein from the University of Exeter, underscores a troubling reality: "The impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly dramatic, yet we still see no sign that burning fossil fuels has peaked." The need for swift and significant reductions in fossil fuel emissions is now more critical than ever.

Countries Making Progress

Interestingly, while the global trend remains troubling, there are 22 countries that have managed to significantly cut their emissions without stunting economic growth. Notable examples include the UK, Germany, and the US—collectively responsible for about a quarter of worldwide emissions.

Future Emissions Forecasts

The current data suggests that global emissions may surpass 37 billion tonnes in 2024, equating to about four million tonnes every minute. Gas emissions are anticipated to see the largest increase at 2.4%, driven largely by rising demand in China and other regions. Additionally, oil consumption is expected to climb by 0.9%, primarily due to a resurgence in international air travel.

Regional Emission Patterns

China, identified as the world’s largest carbon polluter, is expected to witness a slight increase in emissions. Despite substantial growth in renewable energy, the surging demand for electricity in technology and residential sectors has fueled continued coal usage.

In contrast, the US is set for a slight decline in emissions, bolstered by the ongoing drop in coal use to its lowest levels in 120 years, although this may be countered by an uptick in natural gas consumption. Meanwhile, the European Union is experiencing a more dramatic decrease in emissions—down 3.8%—due to significant cuts in coal usage. However, India faces a 4.6% rise in emissions as its economy grows, with coal usage expanding rapidly.

Deforestation Emissions

The Global Carbon Budget also examined emissions resulting from deforestation, which have decreased overall by about 20% over the last decade but showed an uptick in 2024 due to the effects of El Niño, exacerbating droughts and wildfires. Regions like Brazil, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo lead in deforestation emissions, primarily driven by exports to more developed nations.

Skepticism Regarding Future Emissions

Experts express skepticism about achieving a peak in global fossil CO2 emissions soon. Dr. Glen Peters noted, “The world continually finds ways to burn ever more fossil fuels.