Introduction

In a startling assessment, the Biden administration is increasingly convinced that the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad may be facing imminent collapse due to a fierce rebel offensive now sweeping through the country. This revelation comes from a senior US official speaking exclusively to Al-Monitor.

Recent Developments in Homs

On Friday, a mass exodus from Homs was reported as rebel forces, primarily led by the Islamist faction Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, advanced into Syria's third-largest city. The potential capture of Homs, which would mark a significant loss for the Assad government—already reeling from the recent fall of major cities like Aleppo and Hama—could fuel momentum for the rebels and lead to an intensified push toward the capital city of Damascus.

US Assessment and Predictions

Officials within the US administration are suggesting that Homs could fall within days. One source indicated a "moderate confidence" that the city might succumb by as early as Friday night.

Humanitarian Crisis

As the situation escalates, thousands of civilians are caught in the chaos, underscoring the dire humanitarian crisis that has been exacerbated by over 14 years of brutal civil war. This protracted conflict has not only claimed hundreds of thousands of lives but has also given rise to a multitude of extremist groups and led to the largest refugee crisis since World War II.

Shifts in Conflict Dynamics

Although Assad's forces regained substantial territory in recent years, the recent rebel resurgence is reminiscent of earlier upheavals. The conflict had previously settled into a quagmire, with neither side able to secure a decisive victory. However, the renewed offensives indicate a shift in momentum that could be pivotal for opposition forces.

International Response

As the violence escalates, a spokesperson for the State Department relayed that the US is "closely monitoring" the conflict and has called for the protection of civilians, especially minority groups who are often caught in the crossfire. They reiterated the urgent need for a political resolution in line with UN Security Council Resolution 2254, which outlines a path toward ceasefire, constitutional reform, and UN-supervised elections. The spokesperson laid the blame for the ongoing turmoil squarely on the Assad regime's persistent refusal to engage in meaningful talks aimed at peace.

Conclusion

As events unfold, the world watches closely. Will Syria witness the end of Assad's rule? The stakes couldn't be higher, both for the Syrian people and for the broader geopolitical landscape. Stay tuned as this critical situation develops.