Introduction

In a landscape laden with uncertainties in the global economy, industry experts at a seminar organized by the Hong Kong Export Credit Insurance Corporation revealed that Hong Kong's export sector remains remarkably robust. They emphasized that while challenges persist, exporters should focus on the silver linings amidst the strife.

Expert Insights

Irina Fan, the research director at the Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC), declared, 'The export business is still doing well,' casting aside fears tied to potential tariff increases. Despite a reported decrease in exports to the United States, Fan highlighted that trade with other regions is on the rise. In fact, HKTDC data indicates a remarkable 18% growth in total exports from Hong Kong in 2024 compared to 2017 levels, although exports to the U.S. saw a decline of 7%. There's particularly noteworthy momentum in trade with emerging markets, showing impressive gains of 40% to Mexico and 38% to the ASEAN countries.

Global Trade Dynamics

While the United States market may present challenges, the World Bank reports that China has successfully increased its share of global exports from 12.7% in 2018 to 14.1% in 2023—an impressive feat given the backdrop of U.S. tariffs imposed on two-thirds of Chinese exports during this timeframe. Fan pointed out that while trade tensions loom, they are impacting exporter sentiment more than actual sales figures.

Sales and Projections

In a December survey, amid fears of potential tariff hikes with the incoming U.S. administration, the HKTDC found that most exporters reported little to no immediate impact on their operations from these tensions. Looking ahead, Hong Kong’s exports are projected to grow by 4% year-on-year in 2025. Although this is a dip from the anticipated 9% growth for 2024, it's still a commendable figure compared to the historical average growth rate of 3% over the past decade.

Recent Growth Statistics

The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government revealed that from January to November 2024, goods exports surged by 9.1% compared to the same period in 2023, pointing to a steady recovery in demand from significant markets. Dennis Ng Wang-pun, chairman of the advisory board at the Hong Kong Export Credit Insurance Corporation, hailed this growth as a sign of resilience and improvement.

Economic Outlook

Adding to the optimism, Thomas Shik, head of economic research for global markets at Hang Seng Bank, noted that the recent interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve could bolster Hong Kong's economy. Since last September, the Fed has enacted three rate cuts, totaling a 100 basis point reduction, with expectations of further cuts this year.

Industry Resilience

Shik also emphasized that the Chinese mainland's export competitiveness endures despite global challenges. The rise of high-tech industries—particularly in solar energy and new energy vehicles—injects vigor into the economy and acts as a cushioning factor against potential tariff repercussions. Moreover, initiatives by Beijing to stabilize the real estate market and support the stock market are projected to yield positive outcomes, with Shik anticipating that economic performance in 2025 will mirror last year’s trends.

Conclusion

These insights reveal a compelling narrative of resilience for Hong Kong’s export sector, providing hope amid uncertainties and a robust foundation for the future.