Hollywood's Thanksgiving Lottery: Can ‘Wicked,’ ‘Gladiator II,’ and ‘Moana 2’ Resuscitate the Fall Box Office?

Hollywood is gearing up for an ambitious Thanksgiving weekend with the release of three highly anticipated films: “Wicked,” “Gladiator II,” and Disney’s “Moana 2.” As theaters hope these titles can spark a much-needed revival, the question lingers: will this trio capture moviegoers’ hearts and wallets enough to turn around a lackluster fall?

In a world still buzzing from the unique and contagious phenomenon of “Barbenheimer” — the simultaneous success of “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” earlier this year — movie theater owners are praying for a similar spark with the upcoming releases, which hit screens in a matter of weeks on November 22nd and 27th. Shawn Robbins, director of movie analytics at Fandango, believes these films can create their own conversation. “While it’s unlikely to replicate the ‘Barbenheimer’ excitement directly, expect the buzz around ‘Wicked’ and ‘Gladiator II’ to heighten interest for both,” he suggests.

This fall has been worryingly sluggish at the box office, with disappointing performances from recent releases like “Joker: Folie à Deux” and “Venom: The Last Dance.” Industry insiders are desperately looking towards the Thanksgiving holiday as a remedy for an otherwise bleak year, having seen domestic box office revenues dip over 11% compared to last year and nearly 27% since 2019, according to Comscore.

If projections hold true, “Wicked” is set to rake in between $80 million to $85 million over the three-day weekend, while “Gladiator II” may bring in $55 million to $65 million. Meanwhile, “Moana 2” is anticipated to surpass the $100 million mark across five days. Chris Aronson, president of domestic distribution at Paramount, notes, “For the first time in a while, audiences have a diverse slate of films to choose from this Thanksgiving. There’s genuine excitement.”

Historically, Thanksgiving is a lucrative holiday for the film industry, with 2018 seeing a record gross of $315 million. However, the trend has faltered in recent years, particularly post-pandemic. Last year, audiences faced one of the lowest box office returns in history, bringing in just $125 million. Optimism is on the rise that this year's Thanksgiving lineup could change that narrative dramatically.

Much of the pressure on “Moana 2” stems from the success of its predecessor, which became one of Disney’s most streamed films. However, this sequel was initially conceived as a television project for Disney+ before being shifted to the big screen, raising questions about its quality and whether it can deliver hits like the beloved “How Far I’ll Go.”

As for “Wicked,” the excitement surrounding its stars, Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande, has reached a fever pitch. Paramount has invested heavily in marketing the musical, aiming to match the buzz generated by “Barbie” earlier this year, but it must still fight against the disappointing outcomes of previous film adaptations of musicals in a time when many have struggled to find their footing.

“Gladiator II” faces its own set of challenges as it seeks to build upon the legacy of the Academy Award-winning original from 2000, now a cultural milestone. With notable stars like Paul Mescal, Pedro Pascal, and Denzel Washington, director Ridley Scott hopes to rekindle the blockbuster spirit, but audiences will take some convincing that the sequel isn’t merely trading off its predecessor’s fame.

Beyond these heavyweights, smaller films like A24's horror flick “Heretic” and Dwayne Johnson’s festive comedy “Red One” are vying for attention too, presenting a broad spectrum of options for moviegoers seeking variety this holiday season.

As the countdown to Thanksgiving proceeds, the stakes couldn't be higher for Hollywood. Cinema chains and studios alike are banking on these films not only to revive the box office but also to signal a return to form for the film industry as a whole. Will this Thanksgiving present the much-needed blockbuster bonanza, or will audiences once again find themselves adrift in a sea of mediocrity? Only time will tell.