Introduction

Donald Trump has made a series of bold promises aimed at reshaping the US economy, the largest in the world. His agenda includes a comprehensive strategy to end the ongoing inflation crisis, imposing tariffs on imported goods, and implementing significant cuts to taxes and regulations. Trump asserts that these measures will ignite a new economic boom and restore faith in the American dream.

At a recent rally at his Mar-a-Lago estate, Trump declared, “We’re at the beginning of a great, beautiful golden age of business.” However, this optimistic outlook is overshadowed by experts cautioning that many of his proposed policies could actually hinder economic recovery rather than facilitate it. Political analysts warn that as Trump prepares to enact his plans, he will face numerous challenges that could make keeping his promises much more complex.

Inflation: A Tough Hurdle

What Trump Promised: Trump has consistently claimed that "Prices will come down," a statement fraught with risk as falling prices are typically seen during economic recessions. While inflation, characterized by the rate of price increases, has reportedly decreased recently, entirely eliminating it remains a tough battle.

What Complicates It: Several factors contributing to inflation—especially energy prices—are largely beyond any president’s influence. Analysts point to the possibility that some of Trump's strategies, such as tax cuts and cancelled immigration policies, could exacerbate the inflation problem instead of resolving it. John Cochrane, an economist from the Hoover Institution, emphasizes the challenges Trump may face in reconciling the demands of pro-business factions within his coalition with nationalistic agendas focused on border security and international relations, particularly with China.

What Trump Voters Want: Many of Trump’s supporters, like Amanda Sue Mathis from Michigan, believe that if anyone can renegotiate deals to lower costs, it’s Trump. However, even supporters acknowledge that achieving these promises will take time.

Tariffs: A Double-Edged Sword

What Trump Promised: One of Trump’s most unconventional commitments is to impose a blanket tariff of at least 10% on all goods entering the US, escalating to over 60% on products from China. His threats extend to allied countries like Canada and Mexico.

What Complicates It: The potential fallout from such tariffs raises concerns about increased consumer prices and retaliatory measures from foreign nations. With the US economy possibly nearing the end of a prolonged expansion phase, any trade war could depress investment and economic growth. Oxford Economics suggests that the uncertainty surrounding tariffs could contribute to a slowdown, with potential growth reductions by 0.6% by mid-2025.

What Trump Voters Want: Supporters like Ben Maurer express a desire for a focus on revitalizing US manufacturing rather than a blanket tariff policy, advocating for a more strategic approach.

Tax Cuts and Spending: A Tightrope Walk

What Trump Promised: Trump plans to champion lower taxes, streamlined regulations, and a reduced government footprint, which he argues would unleash the full potential of American businesses.

What Complicates It: Despite these intentions, experts predict that cutting regulations will not happen as swiftly as promised. With the looming debt ceiling and rising concerns over national debt—exacerbated by proposed tax cuts expected to add $4.5 trillion to the debt over ten years—analysts warn that borrowing may surge, putting further pressure on inflation.

What Trump Voters Want: Many of Trump’s backers emphasize the importance of reducing government size and bureaucracy, reflecting a widespread belief that excessive government spending is problematic.

Conclusion

As Trump embarks on implementing these ambitious economic plans, the odds stacked against him are significant. The path forward is fraught with contradictions and challenges that could undermine his ability to fulfill his grandiose promises. While his supporters remain hopeful, the complexities of economic policy and the realities of cross-pressured political landscapes make the outcome uncertain. Can Trump navigate these obstacles to achieve the economic revival he envisions? The jury is still out.