Eagles Suffer Narrow Loss, But Saquon Barkley's Dropped Pass Isn't the Villain: Analyzing the Data Behind the Game

PHILADELPHIA — Following a nail-biting 22-21 defeat to the Atlanta Falcons, Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts wasted no time in addressing the late-game drop by his running back, Saquon Barkley. Rather than placing blame, Hurts expressed trust in Barkley and emphasized that the loss was a collective responsibility.

"We just didn’t make the play in that moment,” Hurts stated, defending Barkley’s performance. “He’s a hell of a player who has provided us with significant moments.”

The Eagles had a remarkable chance to secure victory riding on a late drive. With just over five minutes left and the Eagles up 18-15, analytics suggested they had an 86% chance of winning. The turning point, however, wasn't solely Barkley's dropped pass, which occurred on a crucial third-and-3 opportunity. The data reveals that a confluence of factors led to the loss rather than just one misstep.

After Barkley's drop, the Eagles still maintained significant control, with a 99% chance of winning before the critical moment and 94% after it. Even when kicker Jake Elliott successfully converted a field goal to extend the lead to six points, the win probability remained at 85%. However, a rapid 70-yard drive by the Falcons culminated in a game-winning interception, shifting the odds sharply against the Eagles.

Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni underscored the notion of shared accountability. “We’ll all have things that we want back. We are all responsible for this loss,” he said.

Barkley, who is drawing attention for his impressive performance since joining the Eagles in free agency, took ownership of the dropped pass but emphasized his commitment to improve. "I could sit here and complain or be a professional athlete and go back to the drawing board,” he remarked.

Indeed, after averaging 88.7 scrimmage yards per game last season, Barkley is off to a stellar start with Philadelphia, garnering an average of 124 yards from scrimmage over the first two weeks, a notable increase indicative of his ability to impact games significantly. His ability to attract defensive attention has also allowed Hurts to spread the ball more effectively, illustrated by Hurts’ own impressive rushing stats during this game.

Looking ahead, the Eagles will need all the offensive firepower they can muster this Sunday against the New Orleans Saints, who are currently undefeated and boasting an impressive 91 points in just two games. The absence of receiver A.J. Brown due to a hamstring injury may put additional pressure on both Hurts and Barkley to perform at peak levels.

As both the players and coaches commit to learning from their narrow defeat, the Eagles are focused on capitalizing on the next opportunities and minimizing mistakes in order to stay competitive in this tightly contested season. A bounce-back win against the Saints could set a strong tone for their journey ahead, demonstrating their resilience and commitment despite recent setbacks.