Overview

The highly anticipated holiday film *Red One*, featuring Dwayne Johnson and Chris Evans, kicked off its box office campaign with impressive early previews totaling $3.7 million. This figure also accounts for a special Sunday screening, suggesting strong viewer interest ahead of its official release.

Current projections for the movie’s opening weekend estimate earnings between $30 million and $35 million, which would mark a monumental achievement as the largest debut for a feature film released through a streaming service.

Performance Comparison

If *Red One* meets or surpasses expectations, it will outstrip the current record set by Apple Original Films’ *Killers of the Flower Moon*, which opened with $23.2 million, not including the successful theatrical debut of Amazon’s *Creed III*, which earned $58.3 million.

Originally intended for a release on Prime Video, the film transitioned to theaters due to promising test screenings, demonstrating Amazon MGM's confidence in its potential appeal.

Box Office Stats

In terms of preview performance, *Red One* outshines several recent films, including *Elemental*, which garnered $2.4 million, *IF* with $1.75 million, and *The Wild Robot*, which brought in $1.95 million.

Notably, only four non-IP films have launched between $30 million and $40 million post-Covid, while only Jordan Peele’s *Nope* has crossed the $40 million threshold.

Market Context

The stakes are high for *Red One* as it competes in a market that has been relatively quiet since the release of *Venom: The Last Dance* on October 25, which debuted with $51 million. While major studios typically regard a $35 million opening as underwhelming, for a company like Amazon, which boasts a market cap of $2.1 trillion, this expenditure is manageable.

Critical Reception

However, the underwhelming critical reception—currently sitting at 34% on Rotten Tomatoes—raises eyebrows. The film follows a chaotic narrative where Santa Claus (played by JK Simmons) is kidnapped and must be rescued by his head of security (Dwayne Johnson), with aid from a hacker (Chris Evans). The film is directed by Jake Kasdan, who previously collaborated with Johnson on the *Jumanji* series.

Historically, Johnson's films tend to attract broader audiences despite mixed reviews, evidenced by past scores like *Rampage* (51%), *San Andreas* (48%), and *Black Adam* (39%). Audience scores, however, often tell a different story, with movies like *San Andreas* and *Rampage* earning an A-, and *Black Adam* a B+ across CinemaScore metrics.

International Performance

On the international front, *Red One* has already accrued $36 million across 75 markets—a decent sum, though not stellar, particularly considering the film's Christmas theme may limit its appeal in non-celebrating regions.

Conclusion

As it enters the weekend, all eyes will be on *Red One* to see if it can convert its early promise into a strong holiday presence and a lasting legacy in Amazon's cinematic catalog. The future looks bright for this festive romp as it competes with other new releases this holiday season. Will *Red One* become a holiday classic, or will it fade into obscurity? Stay tuned!