A Cosmic Threat Looms: The Asteroid That Might Target the Moon

Asteroid 2024 YR4 gained worldwide notoriety last year when astronomers calculated it could intersect with Earth in 2032. While that possibility has been dismissed, there's still a 4% chance it could collide with the Moon.

Why Should We Care?

Though those odds seem slim, if 2024 YR4 were to impact the Moon, it could unleash a storm of micrometeoroid debris into low-Earth orbit, posing a serious risk to satellites and the International Space Station.

NASA’s Bold Strategy: Preparing for the Worst

A fresh study led by researchers from NASA and other U.S. institutions has proposed solutions to this cosmic dilemma. Published in the Journal of the Astronautical Sciences, the paper explores various strategies for either deflecting or outright destroying the asteroid—favoring the latter as the more effective approach.

Deflection? Too Risky!

Normally, deflecting an asteroid is the priority, but with 2024 YR4, it’s not that simple. While diverting it would prevent any impact, detonating it could fragment it into unpredictable fragments. The challenge lies in executing a perfect deflection maneuver, especially when there's so little known about this celestial body and a limited timeframe.

NASA previously attempted this technique with its DART mission in 2022, successfully altering the course of the asteroid moonlet Dimorphos, but probabilities in space are tricky.

Understanding the Asteroid's Mass: A Puzzle

A major hurdle in the deflection plan is accurately gauging 2024 YR4’s weight. The James Webb Space Telescope recently recorded its diameter at about 197 feet (60 meters), but to calculate its mass, the asteroid's density needs to be established—a complete mystery so far.

Estimates suggest its mass could span from 74 million pounds (33 million kg) to a staggering 2 billion pounds (930 million kg). Miscalculating this could have dire consequences, such as accidentally directing the asteroid toward Earth instead.

Why Destruction Is the Better Option

Given these uncertainties, the researchers argue that destruction emerges as a more practical solution, listing various methods.

One approach is a robust kinetic disruption mission that mirrors the DART mission but focuses on shattering the asteroid rather than nudging it. This has never been boss-tested before, but with the launch window between April 2030 and April 2032, there’s ample time for preparation.

Another option? A nuclear device. Yes, you heard that right! Detonating a nuke on, near, or beneath 2024 YR4 could break it apart into harmless pieces—though this remains a theoretical notion.

A Chance to Prepare!

With seven years until 2024 YR4's closest approach, it's likely that it will safely sail past the Moon. Nonetheless, this asteroid presents a unique opportunity for scientists to hone their strategies for future impact prevention, ensuring that Earth remains secure from celestial threats. Buckle up; the universe is full of surprises!