Introduction

As the U.S. presidential election looms on Tuesday, the cryptocurrency market is bracing for a storm of volatility. The outcome of the election is expected to influence short-term price movements, but history hints at a bullish trend for Bitcoin (BTC) once the dust settles.

Historical Performance of Bitcoin Post-U.S. Elections

Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has now seen three previous U.S. elections, and if past performance is any indicator, the leading cryptocurrency tends to soar shortly after these events. Historical data shows that the price of Bitcoin has consistently risen post-election, never returning to its election-day levels. If this trend continues, we could see Bitcoin hitting new heights within the next year.

Bitcoin Price Movements During Past Elections

Looking back at the elections, during the 2012 presidential vote on November 5, Bitcoin's price hovered around $11, only to spike nearly 12,000% to over $1,100 by November 2013. Fast forward to 2016; Bitcoin started November at roughly $700 but surged to approximately $18,000 by December 2017, marking an impressive 3,600% increase.

The most recent election in November 2020, which coincided with the turmoil of the Covid-19 pandemic, saw Bitcoin climbing an astonishing 478% to a high of nearly $69,000 a year later. To add to the excitement, Bitcoin reached over $73,000 in March 2024.

Analyzing Historical Trends

It's worth noting that although Bitcoin's price pre-election has shown remarkable growth, the size of these jumps has been diminishing over the years. The percentage increase from the first post-election price to the second saw a 70% decline, while the jump from the second to the third plummeted to just 87%. If we project this trend forward and estimate a 90% decrease this time, we could anticipate a post-election rally of approximately 47.8%, potentially taking Bitcoin's price to $103,500 by the fourth quarter of 2025.

Current Market Position

Currently, Bitcoin appears undervalued compared to previous cycles. Whether assessed from its low during the FTX collapse in November 2022 or from the halving event in April, Bitcoin's performance trajectory seems to be slower this cycle. Notably, it is only about 7% above where it was at the start of the mining-reward reduction, indicating that despite its historical resilience, this cycle is lagging.

Conclusion

As we await the election results, analysts and investors are keenly observing these patterns, and many are optimistic about a bullish market. With such a historical context, an exciting period for Bitcoin might just be around the corner. Are you prepared for the next big rally? Don’t miss out – the time to act might be now!