Are the Commanders Doomed? Experts Weigh In

As the 2025 NFL season approaches, questions abound: Can Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders really slip from favorites to only eight wins? And is it finally the Buffalo Bills' time to shine above the rival Ravens and Chiefs?

The Athletic's sharp NFL win projection model, created by Austin Mock, estimates the Commanders at around 8.8 wins, while placing the Bills at the top with a striking 11.2.

Team Projections That Spark Controversy

Let's dive into the win totals for some teams that have sparked debates among analysts.

Arizona Cardinals: Are They Underrated?

**Projected Wins: 8.7 — Verdict: Too Low** Under head coach Jonathan Gannon, the Cardinals have shown steady improvement, jumping from four wins in Year 1 to eight last season. With Kyler Murray leading a solid squad, including elite talents like tight end Trey McBride and a fortified defense, a playoff push seems within reach.

Atlanta Falcons: Evidence Needed!

**Projected Wins: 8.2 — Verdict: Just Right** Despite optimism in Atlanta, the Falcons haven't cracked more than eight wins since 2017. If second-year QB Michael Penix Jr. improves and the defense plays consistently, the Falcons might silence their critics.

Baltimore Ravens: Are They Set for Success?

**Projected Wins: 11.0 — Verdict: Just Right** The Ravens possess one of the league's deepest rosters and are expected to hit the ground running, especially with Lamar Jackson leading. However, a tough schedule adds complexity to their win prospects.

Buffalo Bills: Is 11.2 Wins Just the Beginning?

**Projected Wins: 11.2 — Verdict: Too Low** While Mock's projection leads the league, Buffalo has consistently averaged over 12 wins in recent years. Yet, a shaky defense and an unusual turnover ratio could hinder their chances.

Carolina Panthers: A Closer Look at Their Future

**Projected Wins: 6.5 — Verdict: About Right** With notable offseason upgrades and a strong finish from Bryce Young, the Panthers could surpass expectations, but a poor defense still poses challenges.

Chicago Bears: Skepticism Abounds

**Projected Wins: 7.4 — Verdict: Just Right** After struggles in recent seasons, the Bears need to prove transitional improvements under new leadership while facing a challenging division.

Cincinnati Bengals: Can They Keep It Up?

**Projected Wins: 10.0 — Verdict: Just Right** With an established offense, the Bengals expect to thrive. Yet, defensive adjustments and untested talent may inhibit their overall success.

Cleveland Browns: Where's the Optimism?

**Projected Wins: 5.4 — Verdict: Too High** Even with a formidable defense, the Browns' early schedule looks brutal, making it hard to foresee more than five wins this season.

Dallas Cowboys: Expectations Set Low

**Projected Wins: 7.9 — Verdict: Just Right** With essential questions surrounding health and performance, settling on around eight wins seems reasonable for the Cowboys.

Denver Broncos: Room for Improvement?

**Projected Wins: 9.2 — Verdict: Too Low** With a strong defensive core and key offensive additions, the Broncos should aim higher, potentially finishing the season with 11 wins.

Detroit Lions: Are They Ready to Roar?

**Projected Wins: 10.2 — Verdict: Just Right** Despite losing key players, the Lions' talented roster keeps them poised for a strong showing this season.

Green Bay Packers: Can They Surpass Their Projection?

**Projected Wins: 9.8 — Verdict: Too Low** With most of last season's winning lineup returning, the Packers could defy odds despite a challenging schedule.

Houston Texans: Are They Contenders Again?

**Projected Wins: 8.8 — Verdict: Too Low** After clinching the AFC South twice, the Texans are poised to remain competitive and aim for another strong season.

Indianapolis Colts: A Season of Potential?

**Projected Wins: 7.5 — Verdict: Too Low** With a revamped defense, the Colts believe they could surprise the league with a strong season.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Can They Expand Their Potential?

**Projected Wins: 7.9 — Verdict: Just Right** New strategies under Liam Coen may yield results, but early setbacks could impact the season.

Kansas City Chiefs: Will They Remain on Top?

**Projected Wins: 10.9 — Verdict: Just Right** Despite concerns, coach Andy Reid's track record suggests the Chiefs will remain contenders.

Las Vegas Raiders: How Will Changes Affect Them?

**Projected Wins: 7.6 — Verdict: Just Right** Improvements in coaching and player talent seem promising, but the defense could still be a liability.

Los Angeles Chargers: Will Injuries Derail Their Hopes?

**Projected Wins: 8.5 — Verdict: Just Right** With key injuries reshaping their lineup, a cautious outlook on the Chargers seems warranted.

Los Angeles Rams: Trouble Ahead?

**Projected Wins: 9.7 — Verdict: Just Right** With uncertainties surrounding Stafford's health and a highly competitive division, the Rams may have a tough season ahead.

Miami Dolphins: Injuries or Success?

**Projected Wins: 8.0 — Verdict: Just Right** While offensive talent is high, health concerns plague the Dolphins.

Minnesota Vikings: Ready for a Revival?

**Projected Wins: 8.3 — Verdict: Too Low** Despite challenges, the Vikings' strong roster is expected to outperform projections.

New England Patriots: Will They Meet Expectations?

**Projected Wins: 8.4 — Verdict: Too High** Concerns over multiple players and injuries lead analysts to feel this projection is overly optimistic.

New Orleans Saints: Living in the Bottom?

**Projected Wins: 5.2 — Verdict: Just Right** With a challenging quarterback situation, the Saints face a tough path forward.

New York Giants: A Chance for Growth?

**Projected Wins: 5.6 — Verdict: Just Right** Recent additions should help, but a hard schedule could impede their growth.

New York Jets: Expectations vs. Reality?

**Projected Wins: 6.2 — Verdict: Just Right** Analysts express cautious optimism about Justin Fields and the Jets' potential.

Philadelphia Eagles: Can They Keep Dominating?

**Projected Wins: 10.9 — Verdict: Just Right** With a robust roster, the Eagles remain favorites for a strong showing this season.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Aiming for Consistency?

**Projected Wins: 8.7 — Verdict: A Little Low** With an impressive defense and historical performance, more wins seem within reach.

San Francisco 49ers: Set for a Comeback?

**Projected Wins: 10.4 — Verdict: Just Right** Despite some concerns over depth, the 49ers have the star power to aim high.

Seattle Seahawks: Are They Overlooked?

**Projected Wins: 8.6 — Verdict: Just Right** Despite roster changes, the Seahawks are expected to remain competitive.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Can They Keep Climbing?

**Projected Wins: 9.8 — Verdict: Too Low** With a solid roster, the Bucs have room for growth in a favorable schedule.

Tennessee Titans: Challenges Ahead?

**Projected Wins: 6.5 — Verdict: Too High** Echoing concerns about their overall capabilities, expectations should be tempered.

Washington Commanders: Final Thoughts