As the International Space Station (ISS) approaches its retirement, you might assume that NASA has lost faith in Boeing's beleaguered Starliner spacecraft. Surprisingly, that's not the case.

Steve Stich, manager of NASA's Commercial Crew Program, announced recent progress by Boeing and its supplier, Aerojet Rocketdyne, in resolving the issues that plagued a crucial test flight to the ISS last year. Improvements include new seals to prevent helium leaks and upgraded thermal systems to cool overheated thrusters.

Despite accumulating over $2 billion in losses due to Starliner's delays, Boeing is still over a year away from fulfilling its multibillion-dollar NASA contract and starting crew rotation flights to the ISS. However, NASA maintains that Boeing is dedicated to making Starliner work.

"We are targeting a flight as early as next year with Starliner, ultimately aiming for crew rotation flights to start by the end of next year at the earliest," Stich stated. This timeline is significant: it marks 11 years after Boeing initially projected the spacecraft would begin operations back in 2010.

Cargo First, Crew Later?

The next Starliner mission is likely to be a cargo flight rather than a crewed one, although NASA hasn’t finalized those plans. With plenty of crew missions already scheduled on SpaceX's Dragon spacecraft, NASA's needs are covered through at least 2027.

Stich explained that flying a cargo mission first could benefit Starliner, especially considering that SpaceX’s Dragon spacecraft gained valuable experience through its earlier cargo flights before moving on to crew missions.

However, using one of United Launch Alliance's remaining Atlas V rockets for a cargo mission means that Boeing may need to find a different rocket for its crewed missions, which complicates matters. Boeing insists that Starliner is adaptable to multiple rockets, but transitioning to a new launch vehicle like ULA’s Vulcan brings its challenges.

A History of Hurdles

Boeing's journey has been fraught with delays due to various issues, including a fuel leak, a computer timing error, and overheating thrusters that forced Starliner to return from its first crewed test flight empty, leaving its crew to return home on a SpaceX capsule.

After a tumultuous period of silence regarding Starliner’s future, new leadership at Boeing has sparked renewed optimism. CEO Kelly Ortberg reassured that progress is being made to solve the spacecraft's issues.

Why Starliner Matters Now More Than Ever

Despite the ISS nearing its sunset years, NASA is eager to get Starliner operational for crew flights. Their commitment isn’t because of SpaceX’s performance–which has exceeded expectations with multiple successful missions–but due to uncertainties surrounding SpaceX's long-term plans.

Elon Musk's recent comments hinted at a potential end to the Dragon program, sowing doubt about its future availability. If SpaceX pivots its focus solely to the Starship, there may be a vacuum in human spaceflight options post-ISS.

The future landscape of orbital transport could see Starliner and Starship as the only viable options for reaching commercial space stations replacing the decommissioned ISS.

Commercial Space Stations on the Horizon

NASA has its eyes set on a future where commercial space stations fill the role of the ISS. Collaborating with companies like Axiom and Blue Origin, NASA plans to be an anchor customer for these private outposts.

Though potentially cheaper to operate than the ISS, the success of these new ventures isn’t guaranteed, especially given the unpredictable funding landscape and the complexities of establishing a commercial presence in low-Earth orbit.

Conclusion: A Race Against Time

As funding debates loom large and the ISS's lifespan shortens, the need for reliable transportation to and from space remains critical. Boeing’s Starliner must rise to the occasion quickly, or NASA’s options will dwindle.

With decisions pending about crew missions beyond the initial three, the future of human spaceflight hangs in the balance. For now, it seems that both Boeing and SpaceX will play crucial roles in this high-stakes game as humanity ventures deeper into space.