As the U.S. gears up for the pivotal elections on November 5, Ukraine finds itself holding its breath, knowing that the outcome may significantly alter its future in the ongoing war against Russian aggression. With the fate of military support hanging in the balance, the contrasting stances of the two presidential hopefuls could spell different futures for Kyiv.

Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, who currently serves as Vice President, has pledged unwavering support for Ukraine, asserting that she will continue to back the nation until it emerges victorious. In stark contrast, Republican nominee and former president Donald Trump has been critical of Ukraine’s leadership and has suggested that he could negotiate a swift resolution to the conflict, although many question the ramifications of such an outcome.

A Tug of War Over Support

Kyiv officials are reportedly anxious as they recognize the extent of American aid's influence on their defense efforts against Russia. Experts note that the winner of the election could either solidify Ukraine's military capabilities or leave them vulnerable to a potentially disastrous peace deal.

Evelyn Farkas of the McCain Institute identifies the best-case scenario for Ukraine as a Democratic sweep, where both houses of Congress and the presidency are under Harris's management. Here, she envisions an administration that provides timely military aid and strategic support to ensure Ukrainian resilience against Russia.

Key figures in the Democratic party, including Senator Mark Kelly and Congressman Gregory Meeks, believe Harris’s policy would reflect a continuation of the current administration's strong stance, marked by significant military support and diplomatic backing.

However, concerns loom around the potential replacement of key policy advisors, as Harris would need to appoint her national security advisor and other pivotal positions that could reshape America’s approach to the conflict.

The Stakes of a Trump Presidency

On the other side, Trump's relationship with Putin and his emphasis on negotiation over military support fosters apprehension among Ukrainian leaders. Critics warn that a Trump administration could push for a quick settlement favoring Russia, possibly incorporating significant territorial losses for Ukraine and abandoning its NATO aspirations.

After engaging with Zelensky in September, Trump suggested a rapid deal could be achievable but remained vague about specifics, instigating fears of concessions that could endanger Ukrainian sovereignty. The former President's claims of a close rapport with Putin heighten worries that he may not advocate strongly enough for Ukraine's interests, potentially emboldening Russian aggression.

The Implications for NATO and European Security

Beyond Ukraine, a Trump administration could reshape U.S. relations within NATO. Trump’s earlier threats to withdraw from the alliance have caused lasting trepidation among European allies, and experts caution that his potential return to power might further destabilize these partnerships. Notably, Trump's ties with leaders like Hungary's Viktor Orban—who opposes military aid to Ukraine—could influence the broader support landscape. Should Trump take office, American commitment to NATO could be tested, raising fears of a resurgence of Russian influence in Eastern Europe.

Amid the political dynamics, key congressional races will also be critical to Ukraine's future support. If Trump wins, Biden's Democrats must retain control of the House to alleviate potential impediments in delivering crucial aid packages.

In this climate of uncertainty, the situation necessitates close attention from both Ukrainian officials and their international allies. While some express cautious optimism that Trump's prior actions might not entirely dismantle support for Ukraine, the real fear persists that a shift in leadership could unravel the delicate fabric of help that has sustained Ukraine through its fight against relentless aggression.

As the election day approaches, one thing is certain: the stakes for Ukraine couldn't be higher. The outcome not only determines American leadership but also shapes the landscape of European security in a time of urgent crisis.