The announcement of the 2025 PGA Awards nominations has sent shockwaves through the Oscar race, particularly hurting campaigns for standout films like “Nickel Boys” and “Sing Sing.” Film enthusiasts everywhere are debating whether this reflects a significant shift in the landscape of this awards season.

The Producers Guild of America employs the same voting methodology as the Academy for its prestigious Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures. This preferential ballot with 10 slots has historically provided a solid prediction for the Oscar’s Best Picture nominees, as evidenced by last year's complete overlap between the PGA and Academy selections.

As we approach December—traditionally a strategic moment for awards campaigns—we must ask: have the dynamics changed since the recent announcements from the AFI Awards? The American Film Institute has proven itself to be remarkably precise in forecasting the final Best Picture contenders in recent years, often omitting only international entries. Last year, for instance, the AFI included “May December” and “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” over the eventual nominees “Anatomy of a Fall” and “The Zone of Interest,” which were not US productions.

Given the current nominations and previous lists, films like “A Complete Unknown,” “A Real Pain,” “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” “Conclave,” “Dune: Part Two,” “Emilia Pérez,” and “Wicked” appear to be the safest bets for a Best Picture nomination. Interestingly, “The Substance,” a French horror film, didn’t make the AFI cut, despite its recent momentum following Demi Moore's Best Actress win at the Golden Globes. The film’s body horror elements, initially seen as too extreme for Academy tastes, could garner renewed interest as the Oscar race intensifies.

Among the most intriguing entries is “September 5,” which was showcased at several fall festivals before being picked up by Republic Pictures. Featuring Peter Sarsgaard, known more for character roles than lead parts, the film addresses the harrowing topic of the 1972 Munich Olympics tragedy involving the Israeli team and has a contemporary relevance that feels resonant today. However, its ensemble nature and weighty subject matter complicate its potential for awards recognition, especially given the PGA’s historical preference for box office successes over critically challenging narratives.

The debate continues: Could a significant title like “Dune: Part Two” face exclusion from the final Oscar lineup? Even with differing tastes between the PGA and Academy, the Golden Globes have suggested that predictions for indie darlings like “Sing Sing” and “Nickel Boys” may be faltering as award season progresses.

As we eagerly approach the Oscars, enthusiasts and industry insiders alike are left pondering the implications of these nominations. Will the PGA outcomes pave the way for shocking upsets come Oscar night? Buckle up, because this awards season promises to be a rollercoaster of surprises!